For more than eighty years, Europe has been protected under the security umbrella of the United States. Now, as negotiations take place regarding the war in Europe without the involvement of Ukraine or any other European nations, Europe is forced to adopt an independent stance both politically and militarily.
If the United States were to accede to all of Putin’s wishes, the question arises as to whether this is truly in America’s interests. Even Republicans are beginning to harbour doubts. Here are ten reasons why Trump is keen to finalise a deal with Putin:
- Admiration for authoritarian leaders
Trump admires strong dictators because he values power, authority and unwavering steadfastness. This aligns with his own leadership style. He sees politics as a tough negotiation and appreciates leaders who are not swayed by political opponents or institutions. - Mistrust of Ukraine
Trump is convinced that the political establishment in Ukraine is against him. He believes that it was not Russia, but Ukraine, that interfered in the 2016 elections. In an attempt to prove this, his lawyer Rudy Giuliani dispatched a team to Ukraine. Instead of finding evidence of electoral interference, they uncovered the corruption case involving Hunter Biden, which later became an important theme in Trump’s campaign. - Oil interests
The current negotiations between the United States and Russia are taking place in Saudi Arabia, and they are not about Ukraine but about oil. After all, it is no coincidence that the three largest oil producers are at the table. Trump wants a lower oil price and is attempting to persuade Russia to supply extra oil. This would benefit the American economy (specifically by easing inflation), yet Russia and Saudi Arabia have an interest in maintaining high oil prices. Consequently, Trump must make concessions to finalise such a deal. - Negotiation strategy
Trump believes that Russia is less willing to make concessions than Ukraine. While Ukraine has repeatedly called for negotiations, Putin has thus far refused to compromise. Trump sees this as the best opportunity to secure a “great deal” through his distinctive negotiating style. - Ambition to win the Nobel Peace Prize
Trump aspires to win the Nobel Peace Prize—an accolade his predecessor Obama received, albeit without what Trump deems to be a significant achievement. If Trump manages to establish peace in Ukraine and resolve conflicts in the Middle East and Asia, he could position himself as the greatest peacemaker of this century. - China as a greater enemy than Russia
Although Russia has historically been America’s enemy, Trump regards China as the greatest threat to America. With Russia and China increasingly working closely together, Trump may attempt to extricate Russia from that alliance by granting favours to Putin. This could isolate China on the international stage and shift the balance of power in favour of the United States. - Conspiracy theory: Trump as a Russian asset
There have long been speculations that Trump has ties with Russia. According to former KGB agent Yuri Shvets, Trump has been manipulated by Russian intelligence services since the Cold War. Although there is no concrete evidence to support this theory, the idea persists that Trump aids Putin due to underlying interests or connections. In theory, Trump is the ideal mole. From a Soviet perspective, such a communist mole would have to be above suspicion. Someone who has his name emblazoned in golden letters on buildings is an uber-capitalist—certainly not a communist. - Trump is not a Democrat at heart
Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that he regards democratic institutions in the United States as obstacles. This became strikingly evident at the end of his first term, when his supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to overturn the election result. His admiration for authoritarian leaders such as Putin is in keeping with his own political ambitions. - Blackmail by Putin
For years, there have been rumours that Putin possesses compromising information about Trump that he can use for blackmail. This would be a classic KGB strategy—to compromise influential foreign figures and use them to exert political influence. Although the content of such alleged information remains unclear, the notion that Putin has leverage over Trump stubbornly persists. - Control of the Russian nuclear arsenal
The Russian economy has been severely weakened by the war in Ukraine. The Russian military has suffered enormous losses, possibly comparable to those incurred in the war in Afghanistan, which ultimately contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Should Putin’s regime collapse, a power vacuum would emerge, posing a danger given Russia’s enormous nuclear arsenal. By accommodating Putin now, Trump could attempt to guarantee stability and indirectly influence the future of Russia.
For Europe, this may appear to be a threat, but in fact it represents an opportunity. The fact that Europe has often not been taken seriously on the world stage since the formation of the European Union is largely due to American dominance over the past eighty years—whether in various international organisations, the United Nations, or Nato.
The economy of the whole of Europe is larger than that of both the United States and China. Military strength is ultimately always a derivative of economic power. Germany’s new chancellor, Merz, also desires an independent Europe. Not with American weaponry, but with European. However, even eighty years after the Second World War, the slogan “Make Germany Great Again” feels somewhat too uncomfortable. Instead, he prefers “Make Europe Great”.
Han Dieperink is the chief investment officer at Auréus Vermogensbeheer. Earlier in his career, he served as the chief investment officer for Rabobank and Schretlen & Co.