Han Dieperink

Trump’s second term promises lower taxes, market-friendly policies, and bold trade moves, but risks with Russia, China, and inflation could shape global markets profoundly, write Han Dieperink in his latest column.

The underperformance of European equities compared to U.S. equities reached unprecedented levels in 2024. This divergence has widened the valuation gap between the United States and Europe. While the relative scarcity of tech companies listed in Europe is often cited as a reason, other explanations also account for this undervaluation.

Argentina was once one of the wealthiest nations in the world, richer than France or Germany. Much of its prosperity was based on beef exports. Today, however, many Argentinians can no longer afford beef and have turned to chicken as a cheaper alternative.

We find ourselves in the midst of the 2020s—a remarkable moment in time. Much like the “Roaring Twenties” a century ago, we are experiencing both a productivity boom and a free-market surge. This is the only time in the past hundred years that such a conjunction has occurred.

These are worrying times. Geopolitically, a new world war seems imminent. The challenges in Europe are so significant that the valuation of European stocks has halved compared to the American markets.

The number of candidates taking CFA exams has declined again, according to the latest figures. At its peak in 2019, over 270,000 individuals registered, but the most recent figure stalled at 163,000. As is often the case, there are likely multiple explanations for this trend.

Many central banks have begun lowering policy interest rates. The aim is to counteract economic slowdowns or even a potential recession. When both short- and long-term interest rates are consistently below the nominal growth rate of the economy, the situation is referred to as reflation.

The victory of Trump is good news for cryptocurrency. During the election, crypto was a key topic, revolving around SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.

Growing signals suggest the Republicans could clinch a victory in today’s elections, a scenario generally regarded as optimal for investors. A Republican Sweep would mean lower taxes, deregulation, and increased government spending. However, the gap between the Republicans and Democrats remains too narrow to confidently predict a winner, raising the likelihood of a contentious, potentially escalating dispute over the results.

Following the Great Financial Crisis, the western monetary madness led to years of outperformance for US equities. Now that central banks are lowering interest rates and the global economy seems to be picking up, emerging markets are becoming attractive again.