Artificial intelligence continues to be underestimated—both in terms of its scale and the speed of its adoption. We’ve seen this story before. The personal computer in the 1980s, the internet in the 1990s, and the smartphone from 2007 onward—each time, revolutionary technologies were massively underestimated by analysts, investors, and even the most optimistic visionaries. The same is happening now with artificial intelligence, but at a pace that puts all previous technological revolutions in the shade.
Look back at 1981, when IBM predicted there might be global demand for five computers. Or 1995, when Robert Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet, forecasted that the internet would collapse under its own weight within a year. Steve Ballmer laughed off the iPhone as too expensive and unlikely to compete with BlackBerry. Time and again, reality proved to be far bigger than even the boldest expectations.
The PC market didn’t grow to thousands but to billions of devices. The internet didn’t remain the hobby of a few academics but became the nervous system of the global economy. The iPhone didn’t just create a new product category—it transformed entire industries, from transportation to retail, from photography to banking.
The AI skepticism of 2024
Today, we hear the same doubts when it comes to artificial intelligence. In recent quarters, there’s been a chorus of skepticism around the so-called AI hype. Will all those billions poured into data centers really pay off? Is there truly demand for that much computing power? Aren’t we in a bubble that could burst at any moment?
These questions are understandable—but historically, they’re dead wrong. Markets have a persistent tendency to underestimate transformative technologies, not overestimate them. We’re already seeing early signs that AI is being adopted faster and more broadly than even optimists expected. One key reason is that the human brain isn’t wired for exponential growth—we think linearly by nature. That’s why Einstein famously called compound interest the eighth wonder of the world. Not because it’s hard to calculate, but because its implications are hard to grasp—even for Einstein.
Acceleration through necessity
What sets this AI revolution apart from earlier breakthroughs is the external pressure that is speeding up its adoption. Geopolitical tensions are creating a sense of urgency we didn’t see with the PC or the smartphone. Historically, wars have always been catalysts for technological leaps—from radar to the internet, from GPS to touchscreens.
Current conflicts starkly illustrate how AI is reshaping modern warfare. Drones are replacing tanks, and smart munitions are making traditional artillery obsolete. But more importantly, the trade war between major economic blocs is pushing companies to seek out competitive advantages. That’s where artificial intelligence excels—automating processes, optimizing decision-making, and creating new products and services.
Human progress has always relied on our unique ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Pressure breeds creativity, and creativity drives innovation. AI is the ideal tool for this moment.
The Uber-Goldilocks scenario
This combination of forces creates what I call the Uber-Goldilocks scenario—an economic environment that goes beyond the classic Goldilocks scenario of the 1990s. Back then, we spoke of a “just right” balance of growth and inflation—not too hot, not too cold. What we see now is the next level up from that fairytale.
AI brings productivity gains that make structurally higher economic growth possible, while also exerting deflationary pressure through efficiency improvements. The result: positive growth combined with lower inflation, giving central banks room to keep interest rates low—or even cut them further. For investors, this is a dream scenario: strong corporate earnings driven by AI-fueled productivity, coupled with a favorable rate environment. And all this while the “wall of worry”—the widespread skepticism surrounding AI investments—remains sky-high.
The Roaring Twenties, a century later
History gives us two compelling precedents: the second half of the 1990s, when the internet transformed the economy, and the roaring twenties of the previous century, when mass electrification and the automobile supercharged growth.
The impact of artificial intelligence—impact being a function of mass times speed—suggests that even these highly positive historical scenarios are still being underestimated. Where the 1920s saw the automation of physical labor, we are now witnessing the automation of cognitive labor. In that sense, the impact is exponentially greater.
AI is being implemented faster than the internet, is spreading more widely than the smartphone, and is having a deeper impact than electricity. Companies currently operating in this space remain undervalued, simply because the market once again fails to grasp the full extent of transformative change. History teaches us that revolutionary technologies don’t grow gradually—they explode exponentially once they reach critical mass. We are now on the brink of that explosion for artificial intelligence.
Investors, business leaders, and policymakers who are ready to anticipate the true scale of the AI revolution will be positioning themselves for what may become the greatest technological transformation in human history. Those who continue to underestimate it risk the same fate as those who misjudged the PC, the internet, or the smartphone. The question isn’t whether AI will transform the world—but how fast and how radically. And if history teaches us anything, the answer is: faster and more radically than we dare to imagine.
Han Dieperink is chief investment officer at Auréus Investment Management. He previously served as chief investment officer at Rabobank and Schretlen & Co.