Answers from the campfire

Last week, during the Fund Event, I sat in a packed room around a metaphorical campfire. This time, questions didn’t come through the chat, but as paper airplanes floating through the air. Some landed in the fire and were answered immediately. Others fell into the ashes. Time to pick those up.

The crash of October

October has a bad reputation in the markets. The biggest crashes in history – 1929, 1987, and 2008 – all took place in October. This pattern does not appear to be a coincidence but rather the result of structural factors that make this month particularly volatile.

The profit paradox

For decades, it was an iron law for investors: in the long run, the stock market follows economic growth. A thriving economy translated into rising corporate profits and thus higher share prices. But anyone who has watched the past thirty years closely senses a growing friction with this old wisdom.

Greed is a stronger emotion than fear

The Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates from 4.25–4.50 percent to 4.00–4.25 percent and will lower rates further at the remaining meetings of the FOMC, the Fed’s policy body. This comes even as financial conditions have already improved and there is still an extraordinary amount of liquidity on the sidelines.