Opinion

European dependence on fossil fuels poses a risk to price stability. That is according to Frank Elderson, the Dutch member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB). Energy shocks, which seem to occur with increasing frequency, are making it ever more difficult for the ECB to keep inflation at 2 percent per year.

Nu het einde van de oorlog met Iran voorlopig niet in zicht is, steken recessieverhalen weer de kop op. Toch wijzen andere indicatoren erop dat de bullmarkt nog lang niet ten einde is.

There was a time when software companies could rely on growth rates and compelling narratives about scalable business models. Revenue was paramount, profit an afterthought. A decade ago, investors routinely paid six to ten times annual recurring revenue for SaaS businesses, and that felt entirely reasonable. Anyone who raised concerns about cash flow was dismissed as an old-fashioned investor who did not understand the future. That era has ended.

For over ten years, I’ve been writing articles for investors, economists, and anyone with even the slightest interest in the financial markets. Extremely negative stories, stories about the issues of the day, or stories with sensational headlines tend to do particularly well. Although I’m occasionally lumped into the first category, I’m usually not very good at writing those kinds of stories. But today I have a topic that tops the charts every day: Artificial Intelligence.

While the whole world was watching the Serena Hotel in Islamabad, where the ceasefire negotiations on Iran were taking place, the real news last week unfolded 6,000 kilometers away.

I have been watching the financial markets with some amazement for the past few weeks. A US president threatening the eradication of an entire society, while equity markets remain largely unchanged. Then a fresh TACO triggers a recovery rally of several percent, even though there is nothing more than a two-week ceasefire and ongoing uncertainty. For anyone looking even slightly ahead, a clear bump appears that we will all have to get over.

The world was already electrifying at a rapid pace. But two developments are now pushing this process into an acceleration that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago.

The war against Iran has now lasted a month, and the consequences are becoming visible at a rapid pace. The conflict began as an American-Israeli operation targeting Iran’s nuclear program and the regime in Tehran. But while the United States and Israel are dropping bombs, Europe is absorbing the heaviest economic blows. The result of decades of failed European energy policy, strategic dependency, and a lack of geopolitical power.

If there is one thing that characterizes the investment world, it is that it is full of clichés, parrots, and an enormous reluctance to change. It is sometimes laughable how market experts produce the same one-liners for twenty years or bury you under their “market wisdom.”

Faithful readers of this column know that I am deeply concerned about the politicization of the European Central Bank (ECB). Lessons from monetary history and piles of academic research support that concern: we simply know that a central bank that listens to what politicians want is bad news for inflation in the medium term.