Opinion

A new year, a new round. Every year at the beginning of January, I once again look with amazement and confusion at the equity market outlooks from the major financial institutions. And especially at the projected returns, which are invariably clustered right around the long-term average. Because one thing you can be almost certain of is that those projections will not materialize.

Passive investing does not exist. It is a comforting fairy tale we tell ourselves, while we all press the same buttons en masse.

EEOC interim chair Andrea Lucas has urged white men who feel discriminated against at work to file a federal complaint. “Are you a white man who has been disadvantaged at work because of your race or gender? Then you may be able to get money back,” Lucas said in a video on X. Act quickly, is the message.

The first trading day of 2026 left no room for doubt. While many investors were still recovering from the champagne, chip stocks surged worldwide and set new records.

Something strange is going on. The US economy is growing, but no jobs are being added. In fact, unemployment is rising to 4.6 percent. Normally, it works like this: first jobs are created, then wages rise, then spending increases. Now that order has been reversed. People are spending money they have not earned.

For the average institutional investor, the appeal of lottery-like stocks—shares with a low price, high potential returns, and extreme volatility—is a mystery. But poorer investors simply reason very differently.

The Cambrian explosion of AI-driven life forms has begun. Under the collective label of artificial intelligence, an ecosystem is emerging that is evolving faster than many people realize. Its impact is still often underestimated, both in scale and in speed, but it will permanently shape the second half of the twenty twenties as a structural force.

The Democrats are on track to win the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026. For investors, that is usually just noise. Now, however, even the most committed progressive has to admit the timing is terrible. Things were going so well.

There was eager anticipation for a new US labor market report. And not only because the flow of macro data from the United States is still lagging as a result of the shutdown. The US labor market is what can still obscure the real reason why rates were cut by another quarter point. But that argument does not hold either.

In financial markets, 2026 will not only be a year of economic normalization, but also a test of the institutional fabric of US monetary policy. Renewed political polarization and the approaching expiration of central banker Jerome Powell’s term are creating a rare convergence of uncertainty for the period ahead.