Room for more optimism
These are worrying times. Geopolitically, a new world war seems imminent. The challenges in Europe are so significant that the valuation of European stocks has halved compared to the American markets.
Certificate inflation
The number of candidates taking CFA exams has declined again, according to the latest figures. At its peak in 2019, over 270,000 individuals registered, but the most recent figure stalled at 163,000. As is often the case, there are likely multiple explanations for this trend.
A new era of financial repression
Many central banks have begun lowering policy interest rates. The aim is to counteract economic slowdowns or even a potential recession. When both short- and long-term interest rates are consistently below the nominal growth rate of the economy, the situation is referred to as reflation.
The war against bitcoin is over
The victory of Trump is good news for cryptocurrency. During the election, crypto was a key topic, revolving around SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.
A recession after the elections
Growing signals suggest the Republicans could clinch a victory in today’s elections, a scenario generally regarded as optimal for investors. A Republican Sweep would mean lower taxes, deregulation, and increased government spending. However, the gap between the Republicans and Democrats remains too narrow to confidently predict a winner, raising the likelihood of a contentious, potentially escalating dispute over the results.
Emerging markets in portfolio
Following the Great Financial Crisis, the western monetary madness led to years of outperformance for US equities. Now that central banks are lowering interest rates and the global economy seems to be picking up, emerging markets are becoming attractive again.
Long live the bull market
Last weekend marked the second anniversary of the current bull market in equities. Since hitting its low point on October 12, 2022, the MSCI All Countries World Index has surged about 50 percent, the S&P 500 has risen by around 75 percent, and the Nasdaq has doubled. The driving force behind this impressive rally? The so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks, which have nearly tripled in value over the same period.
Geopolitical conflicts over microchips
China and Japan are once again on a collision course, this time over the highly strategic semiconductor industry.
Don't invest in banks, except those from Japan
If you want to generate returns through stocks, focus on companies that achieve a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital. This is the essence of value creation.
JD Vance as the new power player
Trump’s pick of James David Vance, better known as J.D. Vance, as vice-presidential candidate markets a firm shift.