With China using interest rates again to defuse the property crisis, and the Federal Reserve making clear in Jackson Hole that it will continue to tighten, the divergence in central bank policy between the two largest economies is increasing. This is not good news for the yuan, emerging market currencies and equities.
The chart below shows the Chinese yuan against the difference in short-term interest rates in China and the United States. That difference has increased significantly in recent months, with the result that the Chinese short-term interest rate is now almost 1.50 percent lower than in the US. And this in a country where many still assume that the growth potential is much higher than in the ageing United States.
I have my doubts. The chart shows that the US dollar strengthens against the Chinese yuan (note that the right axis is inverted) as interest rates in China fall relative to those in the US.
Emerging currencies
Among emerging countries, China is obviously the dominant player. Many, mostly Asian, emerging countries are almost completely dependent on China as a trading partner. This generally means that a weaker Chinese yuan also leads to a weakening of other emerging currencies.
The currency factor largely determines the short-term performance of emerging market bonds denominated in local currency, so a depreciation of the Chinese currency is also almost immediately visible in the performance of local currency emerging bonds. It is one of the reasons why we are underweight at True Insights.
Shares
It does not stop there. The graph below shows that the correlation between the Chinese yuan in US dollars and equities is negative. When the yuan falls against the dollar, equities generally fall, and vice versa. The divergence in monetary policy is therefore also reflected in the global equity markets.
Letting off steam
China was therefore the main reason - and not the EU’s plans to do something about energy prices - that equities rebounded a little recently. The PboC recently decided to set the yuan’s mid-price - based on the previous day’s currency fluctuations - a directional tilt if you will - much higher than the market expected. This was the biggest deviation since 2019.
A clear signal that the PBoC does not see a sharp and rapid depreciation of the yuan. However, as the euro and the yen have shown in recent months and quarters, divergence in monetary policy can lead to sharp currency fluctuations. And with the widening gap between short-term interest rates in China and the US, I would certainly not put the yuan on “green” as a sentiment indicator.
Jeroen Blokland is founder of True Insights, a platform that provides independent research to build diversified multi-asset portfolios. Blokland was most recently head of multi-assets at Robeco. His “chart of the week” appears every Monday on Investment Officer Luxembourg.
This column originally appeared on InvestmentOfficer.nl.