After Russia, the eurozone is probably the big loser in the Ukrainian war. Not so much politically or strategically, but economically. The eurozone economy was already ailing before the Russian invasion. That is why the buffers are not big.
As a result of the corona crisis, the debts of the weaker eurozone countries in particular have increased further, resulting in further divergence within the eurozone. The interest burden on these debts is still low, but the interest rate in Italy has risen more sharply than in Germany or the United States. And then the ECB has yet to start raising interest rates.
Shortly after she started at the ECB, Lagarde let it slip that the ECB is not there to reduce spreads. That blunder caused unrest on the financial markets. Soon the ECB will no longer be able to reduce the spreads, or only at the cost of further increasing European inflation. This impossible dilemma is the kick-off for the next euro crisis.
Rising trade deficit
Prior to the Russian invasion, Europe’s trade balance had already deteriorated as a result of rising energy prices. At that time, a large part of that energy still came from Russia and 97 percent of that energy was paid for in euros. Those euros were returned in the form of rich Russians buying houses and football clubs here, or Russians feasting on menus with wine bottles priced above 1 000 euro.
The Russian central bank held large reserves in euros and from Russia there was plenty of investment in European companies. That is suddenly over. We can pay for oil in rubles and the Russians will no longer exchange it for euros. There will be more countries that want to hold less in euros. The same sanctions that are now hitting the Russians may at some time also hit rich Arabs or Chinese billionaires. London and Paris are out. Dubai and Singapore are in.
For the eurozone, however, this means that energy will henceforth have to be paid for in hard dollars, dollars that have to be earned first. Yet nowhere else in the world are the costs of labour and energy as high as in the eurozone, which is eroding the eurozone’s competitiveness. The way to smoothen the trade deficit is through a severe recession in the euro area. That will cause a drop in demand, fewer imports and falling energy prices. The problem in the eurozone is that France is only one recession away from Italy. A recession in the eurozone will not make the problems smaller, but larger.
Recession may have already begun
The last three times there was a recession in the eurozone, oil prices rose. So if those recessions were caused by high oil prices, we may already be in a recession. That makes it difficult for the ECB to raise interest rates, but if it doesn’t, the euro will weaken further, importing even more inflation. And eurozone inflation is already so high.
In the past, a crisis in the eurozone could always be averted by the ECB, but now the ECB’s hands are tied by high and rising inflation. The euro is approaching parity with the US dollar and in the dilemma of an ECB that has to choose between fighting a recession or fighting inflation, there is little reason to push the euro higher. In the US, Fed Chairman Powell has even enlisted the support of the late Paul Volcker as an example of how to fight inflation, a huge plus for the dollar.
Profit margins under pressure
Inflation in Europe is reducing real incomes and thus domestic demand. Wages are rising, but productivity is not. The victims are the profit margins of European companies. Lower profits mean less money to invest, which puts further pressure on productivity. In this respect, the Americans have the advantage of being a major oil and gas producer as well as a food and arms exporter.
In Asia, European companies -read: German, because they can compete on the world stage - run the risk of Japan, with its weak yen and short production lines, taking market share from the Germans. After all, Chinese parts for German cars can now no longer be transported by Russian rail.
European countries may want to stimulate the economy, but due to high debts, the room for manoeuvre is limited. This makes the euro look vulnerable, even compared to other countries in the region. The British pound rose against the euro because the Bank of England did raise the interest rates. Scandinavian countries are in a better position. The Swedes can easily compete with any Italian company and the Norwegians are helped by oil and gas reserves.
End of euro project is political choice
One solution to many of the problems outlined above is to end the euro. For the ECB this is not an option because without the euro, there is no ECB. Apart from Hungary, European politics have been remarkably united after the Russian invasion.
Thanks to Zelensky’s performance on social media, we have a common enemy again and a new war on the European continent reminds us, however painful, why the European Union exists in the first place. But next year there are elections in Italy and Spain, and high energy prices and a severe recession could cause populism and protest votes to lead to an anti-European outcome. If so, the euro could soon be over.
Han Dieperink is chief investment strategist at Auréus Asset Management. Earlier in his career, he was chief investment officer at Rabobank and Schretlen & Co. His contributions on Investment Officer Luxembourg appear on Thursdays.