News

In the wake of a sturdy first half characterised by ebbing inflation, stellar tech-driven stock market performance, and soaring bond yields, economists and investment strategists predict a reduced recession risk for the latter half of 2023, a survey by Natixis Investment Managers shows. “Recession is still a real possibility, but most expect a softer landing,” said Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis IM.

Cyprus has emerged as the primary location for firms offering cross-border investment services to retail clients in the European Union and European Economic Area, accounting for 23 percent of the total firms providing passported services. Luxembourg and Germany followed closely, representing 16 percent and 13 percent of all firms, respectively, according to an analysis conducted by European Securities and Markets Authority (Esma) and national competent authorities (NCAs).

The number of new reserved alternative investment funds registered in Luxembourg during a single month in June showed its first rebound since January. Issuance levels though are well below their historic averages. Economic and geopolitical issues get the blame, along with difficulties in raising institutional investment money. Still, faith in the vehicle remains strong, with private equity specialists expecting a further recovery in Raif registrations.

Nicolas Mackel, the CEO of the Luxembourg for Finance development agency Luxembourg for Finance and considered as the de facto ambassador of Luxembourg’s financial sector, speaks to Investment Officer’s Raymond Frenken in this IO Talks podcast.

Hopes in the commercial real estate sector that central banks would lower interest rates due to declining inflation have been dashed. Interest rates are staying high for longer, causing problems, particularly for those who borrowed heavily during the market boom to fuel growth and who now face the burden of refinancing their debt.

The association representing Luxembourg’s banking industry has claimed success in its lobbying effort to persuade the EU to amend the rules governing the prudential requirements and the supervision of third-country branches to its satisfaction. The association said Thursday that a series of subsequent amendments preserve the attractiveness of the EU as a financial centre towards the rest of the world.

Private investors do not know what rising interest rates do to their investments. Despite this, they said they achieved solid returns even when blood ran through the streets.

Family offices are looking to allocate more assets to fixed income in the coming years, as well as illiquid alternatives such as private equity (secondaries). About a third of wealthy families already invest in digital assets, even if it is usually a very small percentage.

This is according to an analysis of two surveys on the investment plans of family offices. Both Goldman Sachs and UBS recently published results on this.

Luxembourg is hoping its long, friendly relationship with China can help keep the superpower on a path towards more investment-friendliness instead of sable-rattling with the US. Levels of investment in China by Luxembourg-domiciled investment funds dipped during that country’s difficult Covid times. Some institutional investors are staying away due to darkening US-China relations. Hopes for a resurgence depend on peace.

Luxembourg’s securitisation community is up in arms over watching competitor Ireland retain its role of EU leader in financial vehicle corporations and in series, despite optimism just last year over this country’s still-shiny securitisation law updated last year. The Irish implementation included provisions giving companies tax minimisation options that they can’t yet get under Luxembourg law.