Chinese diversification
Chinese stocks are the opposite of US Big Tech stocks in almost every way. They are cheap, but nevertheless unloved.
Those looking to invest in emerging markets can even choose a variant of emerging markets ex-China these days. Consequently, global equity portfolios hardly contain any Chinese stocks anymore. This means that just a little bit of good news can cause a sharp price recovery. The time has come to include more Chinese equities in portfolios.
A continuation of the Chinese rally?
On Tuesday the eight-day People’s Congress in China, an annual parliamentary gathering drawing thousands of delegates from across the nation, kicked off. Premier Li Qiang will address the congress, detailing targets for economic growth and military spending. This year holds added significance as it marks the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic, prompting a reflection on its achievements.
A new eurocrisis
This year commemorates the 25th anniversary of the euro, but the festivities are notably absent. In times gone by, the Dutch guilder stood as a robust currency, challenging even the Swiss franc. However, those golden days are now but a memory.
The law of increasing excess returns
The landscape of the technology industry has been dramatically reshaped since the onset of the coronavirus crisis, with big tech companies witnessing their operating profit margins leap from 24 to 29 percent. In stark contrast, other companies have seen a decline of two percentage points in the same period. This trend, far from fostering competition, is solidifying a ‘winner-takes-all’ economy.
Europe’s de-industrialisation
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has accelerated the exodus of industries from Europe, a trend that began long before the conflict.
Ten misconceptions around the Magnificent Seven
It is striking how few investors dare to bet their cards on the Magnificent Seven before 2024. All sorts of things are being tipped, but the Magnificent Seven have to suffer.
The hype is over and they could fall apart at any moment. It is either no good or it is no good. For an investor who dares to think contrair, it is an interesting premise. Here are the top 10 misconceptions surrounding the Magnificent Seven.
Make America Great Again 2.0
In a thought-provoking piece from May 2018, I penned a commentary here titled ‘Make America Great Again’, promptly re-titled by the editor to ‘Rabobank: Trump is good for economy and stock market’. Reflecting on it now, I am mostly financially appreciative. To clarify, today’s discourse is not about Amazonian deforestation but Donald Trump once more.
The sustainability bail-out
Ever since the inception of the European Green Deal, ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) has been mired in a tangle of compromises, featuring arbitrary categories underpinned by a fundamentally incoherent, and likely counterproductive, concept.
Ten old and ten new safe havens
US 10-year yields have risen above 5 per cent. As a result, earnings yield - the inverse of the P/E ratio - has fallen below bond yields for the first time this century. With that, equities look vulnerable. The days of TINA are over for good, there is an alternative again and that is bonds.
Possible turning point for the world economy
In 1973, during Yom Kippur, Israel found itself under siege from countries including Syria, Egypt, Morocco, Iraq, Algeria, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. This conflict led to the first oil crisis, causing oil prices to triple in a short span, marking a significant shift in Western economic growth post-World War II.