Han Dieperink

As the asset management industry embraces wealthtech, its business model has suddenly become very scalable. That also explains the interest of private equity, writes Han Dieperink in his column for Investment Officer this week.

The two oil crises of the 1970s are notorious. In 1973, the oil price went from $3 a barrel to $12 a barrel in two weeks, and in 1979 the oil price rose from $12 a barrel to $33 a barrel. OPEC’s power was great in the 1970s. OPEC’s market share is now rising. This year, moreover, demand for oil will exceed supply for the first time.

Last year, oil prices already rose by 50 per cent. A new oil crisis is in the offing. 

An equity portfolio can be approached in various ways. There is a division between domestic shares and foreign shares, or a division based on market capitalisation with the three categories largecaps, midcaps and smallcaps. And there are distributions based on sectors, factors and, of course, regions.

Each classification has its advantages, but also disadvantages. This year, investors should look for shares that do not fit into any of these boxes.

The nice thing about the investment profession is that creativity is more important than striving for perfection. Striving for a perfect world runs the risk of chasing the market. By selecting investments in which all the good news is discounted, a portfolio is created that structurally lags behind the market.

2021 was the third year in a row where sustainable investors outperformed non-sustainable investors. For a long time, there has been a debate as to whether sustainable investment comes at the expense of returns or actually generates additional returns. Many studies and meta-studies later, the cautious conclusion is that it probably does not cost a return and may even be good for the return.

Every year there are surprises at the trade fair, although there seem to have been more in 2021. A surprise is something that the vast majority did not expect. That is the reason why surprises can set a stock market in motion. When almost everyone is convinced of something, it is discounted in the stock prices. These were the biggest surprises of 2021.

While browsing through all the predictions for next year, I noticed that hardly anyone dares to put China on the map. Until I recently saw JP Morgan’s outlook with the appealing headline  “Buy everything in China”. This was followed on Tuesday by Goldman’s statement that all the risks in China have now been factored in.

Since the 1980s, a balanced portfolio has been a great alternative to a full – highly offensive – equity portfolio. A balanced portfolio typically consists of 50 percent stocks and 50 percent bonds, although the children of the bull market have gradually stretched the stock weight to 60 or even 70 percent.

Rising house prices, records in the stock markets, extremely expensive bond markets and a new high for bitcoin have caused the total assets of American households to rise by an unprecedented 20 percent in one year. That is more than the total GDP of the United States, expected to reach $21.5 trillion this year.

Money only has value if there is a relationship with the value created in the real economy. So the value of money is not determined by the government, but by the private sector. The role of the financial sector is to allocate savings to those who can use them to achieve a higher return than the interest they have to pay.

The extremely low interest rates frustrate this system. Caveat emptor.