Han Dieperink

Western leaders are struggling with their response to Putin’s latest challenge. They agree that it should look like a unified position. In this respect, they are mainly writing down measures that the United States and Western Europe are prepared to take if Russia takes the next step. In this context the combination of French boasting and German passivity is not a happy one.

For two decades in a row money has money has flowed out of active funds. Last year, 100 billion euro suddenly flowed into active funds. It was the best year since 2000. 

Active managers naturally tend to emphasise value and size factors. As a group, they prefer relatively small companies that are cheap. The problem for these active managers, however, has been that the past decade has actually been exceptionally good for the larger and more expensive companies in the index. 

President Biden and Olaf Scholz, the new German Chancellor, are not on the same page regarding Nordstream 2. Biden threatens that no natural gas will flow through the pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine. But for Germany, Moscow is much closer and Scholz will realise that 40 percent of all natural gas in Europe comes from Russia.

Unlike the Netherlands, Germany is actually switching to natural gas, away from lignite and oil boilers. Meanwhile in Moscow, Macron is trying to de-escalate the issue, if only for the upcoming French elections.

As the asset management industry embraces wealthtech, its business model has suddenly become very scalable. That also explains the interest of private equity, writes Han Dieperink in his column for Investment Officer this week.

The two oil crises of the 1970s are notorious. In 1973, the oil price went from $3 a barrel to $12 a barrel in two weeks, and in 1979 the oil price rose from $12 a barrel to $33 a barrel. OPEC’s power was great in the 1970s. OPEC’s market share is now rising. This year, moreover, demand for oil will exceed supply for the first time.

Last year, oil prices already rose by 50 per cent. A new oil crisis is in the offing. 

An equity portfolio can be approached in various ways. There is a division between domestic shares and foreign shares, or a division based on market capitalisation with the three categories largecaps, midcaps and smallcaps. And there are distributions based on sectors, factors and, of course, regions.

Each classification has its advantages, but also disadvantages. This year, investors should look for shares that do not fit into any of these boxes.

The nice thing about the investment profession is that creativity is more important than striving for perfection. Striving for a perfect world runs the risk of chasing the market. By selecting investments in which all the good news is discounted, a portfolio is created that structurally lags behind the market.

2021 was the third year in a row where sustainable investors outperformed non-sustainable investors. For a long time, there has been a debate as to whether sustainable investment comes at the expense of returns or actually generates additional returns. Many studies and meta-studies later, the cautious conclusion is that it probably does not cost a return and may even be good for the return.

Every year there are surprises at the trade fair, although there seem to have been more in 2021. A surprise is something that the vast majority did not expect. That is the reason why surprises can set a stock market in motion. When almost everyone is convinced of something, it is discounted in the stock prices. These were the biggest surprises of 2021.

While browsing through all the predictions for next year, I noticed that hardly anyone dares to put China on the map. Until I recently saw JP Morgan’s outlook with the appealing headline  “Buy everything in China”. This was followed on Tuesday by Goldman’s statement that all the risks in China have now been factored in.