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Return is a chosen illusion

At the heart of financial research lies a seemingly simple question: what is the risk-return profile of stocks and corporate bonds? New research based on the Belgian stock market from 1850 to 1913 shows that the answer changes fundamentally when illiquidity is taken into account.

Appearances are deceptive!

Investors err in assessing stock returns. Prominent outliers attract undue attention and garner more interest than stocks with market-average returns. However, such stocks don’t necessarily make better investments; in fact, this strategy results in reduced returns for investors.

Is the judgment of Paris (1976) on US vs. French wine relevant?

The wine world was taken by surprise in 1976: Steven Spurrier, the British wine merchant, had a jury of experts taste a series of French and American wines blind. To everyone’s surprise, the United States won gold twice in the categories of Chardonnay (California vs. Burgundy) and Cabarnet Sauvignon (California vs. Bordeaux).

Don’t marginalise stock markets

One of the most important functions of a financial system is to bring together people with an abundance and a shortage of capital. Financial markets can efficiently bring innovative companies and investors together. This has a positive effect on the real economy – think of employment and competition (in the form of lower consumer prices).