Max Severijns

In periods of low interest rates, high stock market prices and persistent inflation, the usually volatile commodity markets are once again in the sights of investors. This is also the case now, but this time there is another complicating factor: 100,000 Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine, which the US president expects to invade the neighbouring country.

The idea that economic growth is a problem is seriously outdated, according to University of Ghent philosopher Maarten Boudry (photo), He called divestment “nonsense” and advised investors to be wary of “green” funds. “There is a lot of irrationality in these so-called ethical investment choices”, he said.

2022 will be another exciting year for financial markets. Investors operate in an environment of persistent inflation, foggy central bank policy and uncertainty about the Omicron variant. It is a search for yield and protection in the portfolio. But how?

“Inflation is currently above 10 per cent,” said Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management. The billionaire investor fears that if inflation remains at this level, “there will be major consequences for most of us.”

With non-financial media writing about the increasing devaluation of money, inflation awareness is starting to permeate all parts of society. But according to Bill Ackman, the reality is much grimmer than it seems.

The yield curves on the global bond markets flattened dramatically during the second half of October. When flattening is followed by inversion of the yield curves, a recession is inevitable. This ominous development is causing concern in the market, but are the concerns justified?

It takes a lot of guts to come up with the proposition that this is the moment to shift the emphasis from growth to value stocks. But John Bailer, US equity income manager at Newton Investment Management, is certain. The reason: structural changes in the macroeconomy. Soaring inflation, for example, is giving rise to a veritable “value renaissance”.

Cryptocurrencies are causing the European Central Bank increasing concern. This exotic market segment operates outside the domain of central banks and, according to specialists, can undermine monetary and financial stability. This form of alternative liquidity is a highly undesirable development, according to Sylvester Eijffinger, emeritus professor of financial economics at Tilburg University and visiting professor at Harvard University’s economics department.

US politicians will have to raise the debt ceiling again on 15 December to avert the first ever default on US obligations. A so-called “default” puts at risk payment obligations such as interest on debt. Investors are getting very nervous about this. 

“The equity market is moving towards a bubble”, said Jeroen Blokland said during the annual Fondsnieuws Investment Outlook, organised by Investment Officer Luxembourg’s Dutch sister publication. High valuations and exaggerated growth expectations make the probability of corrections in 2022 very high. This statement did not meet with unanimous approval. According to Edin Mujagic, chief economist at OHV Asset Management, this is in fact the ideal environment for equities.

“The world needs to be prepared for a debt crisis in emerging markets. Rising interest rates will draw capital away from vulnerable countries”, warned Kristalina Georgieva, director of the IMF. For the time being, not everyone feels moved by this warning, “emerging market debt is a paradise for active investors”, according to Wouter van Overfelt, senior portfolio manager EM debt at Vontobel, in an interview with Fondsnieuws, Investment Officer Luxembourg’s Dutch sister publication.