Max Severijns

Rising interest rates and continuing tension surrounding the Ukraine conflict have brought the issuance of high-yield corporate bonds in Europe to a virtual standstill. “The size and speed of the current interest rate increase is causing companies to stop going public and the market to virtually dry up,” said one specialist.

The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds topped 2.8 percent on Tuesday, the highest point since 2018. The 10-year yield thus technically breaks the downward trend line that dominated the government bond market for the last four decades. “This is a harbinger of misery.”

Gold gained ground in March. The war in Ukraine has put the precious metal back in the spotlight for investors. But even as the war seems to have been priced in, and interest rate hikes are expected to accelerate, gold remains in demand. What is going on here?

This week’s relative calm in equity and bond markets is in stark contrast with last month’s turbulence. Investors appear to have put concerns over the war in Ukraine on hold for a while. Some market experts warn however that “sentiment may be too positive”. Illiquid corporate bonds are seen as a safe haven.

The economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gave both equities and bonds a volatile first quarter. Nevertheless, most of the losses incurred were quickly recouped.

Sanctions imposed on companies and individuals in Russia and Belarus have triggered concerns that crypto-currencies offer an escape route to circumvent them. Insiders argued that these concerns are unjustified, although crypto sceptics argue that “we should not be naive”.

Emerging market bond markets are under pressure. Concerns about whether Russia will make its interest payments this month are leading investors to wonder which other countries are at risk of default.

Billions of dollars of Russian government and corporate bonds are at risk, with as much as two-thirds of the country’s foreign exchange reserves frozen. Russia must make at least $400 million in interest payments over the next ten weeks. Next month, a redemption of no less than $2 billion awaits, according to Bloomberg data.

Economic growth in the EU will be “severely affected” by the disruption triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission has warned. Investor confidence in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is falling sharply. The multiplicity of problematic macro factors is large and uncertainty about raw materials dominates. “In Europe it will be touch and go.”

Russia’s invasion makes it more difficult for central banks to keep inflationary pressures at bay. Rising commodity prices weigh on the cost of living in the US and Europe. Restrictive effects of the Ukraine war on economic recovery are also increasing, but a full-fledged stagflation scenario so far appears premature, one investment strategist told InvestmentOfficer.

Investors awaiting higher yields on government bonds have systematically been missing out for four decades. While market rates are rising, bondholders remain on the edge of their seat. With central banks set to tighten monetary policy, the question is: who is going to buy government bonds?

Investors are watching the recovering raw materials market with suspicion. There is even a commodities supercycle on the way, according to Jeffrey Currie, the global head of the commodities research department at investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Currie  is not alone in this expectation. According to the Dutch research bureau Alpha Research, which carried out a survey among 58 asset managers, 46 per cent gave a buy recommendation.