Jort van der Horst

As geopolitical tensions rise and instability in the Middle East persists, small-cap equities have shown notable resilience. So-called “domestic champions”—companies with dominant positions in their domestic markets—are benefiting from deglobalisation and shorter supply chains, and appear less volatile than their reputation suggests.

AI is quietly reshaping the cost base of the US economy by replacing labour and making processes more efficient. In services in particular, this is reducing unit labour costs and easing inflationary pressures. The bond market, however, has yet to fully recognise the policy room this creates for the Federal Reserve.

Investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and reduce dependence on traditional equity indices are increasingly turning to private markets. However, through their public holdings they already have exposure to those same markets. The additional costs associated with private funds do not structurally deliver higher returns.

With the restoration of the negative correlation between equities and bonds, the structure of strategic asset allocation is once again under debate among asset owners and asset managers. Was the shift away from the traditional 60/40 portfolio towards a permanent allocation to private markets a lasting course correction — or merely a temporary response to an extraordinary period? Investment Officer spoke to four leading investment professionals.

Prime Minister Takaichi’s clear reflation policy is making Japan attractive to investors once more, even though the policy rate, at 0.75 percent, stands at its highest level in thirty years. The panic surrounding the unwinding of the yen carry trade, which caused global turmoil two years ago, now appears to have definitively faded into the background.

Spreads on European government bonds are at their lowest level since 2008. The periphery is benefiting from structural growth and European subsidies, while core countries such as France and Germany are weakening. Investors are wondering how much of that convergence remains once the carry trade turns.

Chinese equities have outperformed Wall Street for two consecutive years, yet the label ‘uninvestable’ continues to stick, analysts say. China bulls have not abandoned the market, but they remain divided over whether state-owned enterprises should be kept or avoided.

Where China and India set the pace in emerging markets for many years, investors are increasingly broadening their focus towards emerging Europe and Latin America. At the same time, a hard pivot to ex-China funds has proved risky, particularly because of timing.

What began as a tool for measuring risks evolved into a normative framework, only to return under political pressure to its core: the G. After 25 years, ESG has come of age, but not without scars.

To spot the next Tesla or Nvidia in time, Baillie Gifford is increasingly seeking growth opportunities outside the stock market. Tomorrow’s biggest winners are staying private longer, meaning most of the value creation now happens before the IPO.