Jort van der Horst

Prime Minister Takaichi’s clear reflation policy is making Japan attractive to investors once more, even though the policy rate, at 0.75 percent, stands at its highest level in thirty years. The panic surrounding the unwinding of the yen carry trade, which caused global turmoil two years ago, now appears to have definitively faded into the background.

Spreads on European government bonds are at their lowest level since 2008. The periphery is benefiting from structural growth and European subsidies, while core countries such as France and Germany are weakening. Investors are wondering how much of that convergence remains once the carry trade turns.

Chinese equities have outperformed Wall Street for two consecutive years, yet the label ‘uninvestable’ continues to stick, analysts say. China bulls have not abandoned the market, but they remain divided over whether state-owned enterprises should be kept or avoided.

Where China and India set the pace in emerging markets for many years, investors are increasingly broadening their focus towards emerging Europe and Latin America. At the same time, a hard pivot to ex-China funds has proved risky, particularly because of timing.

What began as a tool for measuring risks evolved into a normative framework, only to return under political pressure to its core: the G. After 25 years, ESG has come of age, but not without scars.

To spot the next Tesla or Nvidia in time, Baillie Gifford is increasingly seeking growth opportunities outside the stock market. Tomorrow’s biggest winners are staying private longer, meaning most of the value creation now happens before the IPO.

Earlier this month, Meta announced that it would finance the construction of a new data center through debt issued via an SPV, while Oracle is setting up two debt facilities for two data centers. Investors do not see this move toward more “exotic financing” as a sign of weakness. “In a sense, we’re now seeing big tech applying the same financial discipline that has traditionally been associated with infrastructure and utility companies.”

Since President Trump began his second term, the US government has increasingly taken stakes in companies considered strategically important for national security. Investors are worried about what this means for market efficiency, but in the short term they are profiting from rising stock prices.

Not only this year are bonds from emerging markets an attractive alternative to the volatile debt of developed economies. European asset managers are seeing a structural shift in the financial policies of these countries. Amundi has even recently merged its emerging markets and developed markets teams.

Assets in European thematic ETFs have climbed to a record 52 billion euro, the highest level since the post-Covid “everything bubble.” While a record number of thematic funds closed in 2024, the category is making a comeback this year, led by the themes of defense and AI.