Fed and politics
In financial markets, 2026 will not only be a year of economic normalization, but also a test of the institutional fabric of US monetary policy. Renewed political polarization and the approaching expiration of central banker Jerome Powell’s term are creating a rare convergence of uncertainty for the period ahead.
Geopolitics emerges as a structural market risk in 2026
Geopolitical risk once entered markets through sudden shocks. Going into 2026, leading investment managers and economists see a more persistent source of pressure: structural forces reshaping a world that is fracturing.
Europe’s banks have very little room to absorb shocks
Europe’s banks are heading into 2026 with solid balance sheets, but with less room for error. After an unusually long credit cycle, risks are building just as the economic environment becomes more uncertain, according to Scope Ratings’ European Bank Outlook 2026.
Robeco: “AI is improving at lightning speed, but it is still in its early stages.”
Artificial intelligence has rapidly climbed to become a leading force in financial markets. Yet according to Mike Chen, Head of Next-Gen Quant Research at Robeco, this is only the beginning. “From a microscopic insect to the intelligence level of a cat in six years. That is how fast AI is evolving. The pace will only accelerate, with far-reaching consequences for markets and for the investment industry itself.”
Europe thé comeback category for 2026, according to asset managers
Around one-third of asset managers active in Europe expect a comeback for European equities in 2026. They consider stocks from the region to be inexpensive and expect the planned large-scale European government investments in areas such as defense and infrastructure to act as a catalyst.
‘Coffee prices are excessively high’
Volatile prices make the coffee market an attractive arena for trading. However, downside risks currently dominate, experts warn.
The balance of trade equilibrium
Last week, China’s trade surplus crossed the threshold of one thousand billion dollar for the first time. In the first eleven months of 2025 alone, China exported one trillion dollar more than it imported. It is a milestone that both illustrates the export strength of Chinese industry and exposes the deep problems in China’s growth model, while further fueling calls for protectionism in the rest of the world.
Natixis Wealth Management remains cautious in 2026 as pillars come under pressure
Amid rising volatility, questions surrounding US interest rates, and uncertainty about the technology sector, Natixis Wealth Management is focusing on diversification in 2026, both geographically and across sectors.
Corporate bonds challenge government debt as a safe haven
Are bonds issued by well-known champion companies as safe as government debt? More and more investors seem to think so, judging by the small yield differentials between, for example, Microsoft and US government paper or between AXA and French government bonds.
Inflation and tight spreads: bonds discouraged for 2026
Stay away next year from “long” government bonds and from corporate bonds, both high yield and investment grade. Profligate governments and poor risk-return profiles will spoil the mood in those markets.