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The profit paradox

For decades, it was an iron law for investors: in the long run, the stock market follows economic growth. A thriving economy translated into rising corporate profits and thus higher share prices. But anyone who has watched the past thirty years closely senses a growing friction with this old wisdom.

Greed is a stronger emotion than fear

The Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates from 4.25–4.50 percent to 4.00–4.25 percent and will lower rates further at the remaining meetings of the FOMC, the Fed’s policy body. This comes even as financial conditions have already improved and there is still an extraordinary amount of liquidity on the sidelines.

Nuclear revival in Europe mainly benefits the US

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a multibillion-dollar deal last week with the US for the construction of a series of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Although the so-called “nuclear renaissance” is also taking shape in Europe according to investors, they see American companies as the main beneficiaries.

Morningstar: PIMCO and Robeco in Global Corporate Bonds (EUR Hedged)

Eurozone corporate bonds delivered a return of 4.2 percent over the past twelve months (as measured by the Morningstar Eurozone Corporate Bond Index), while their US counterpart, the Morningstar US Corporate Bond Index, lost 1.8 percent in euro terms. The currency effect was crucial here.