Share prices follow earnings, always
Stocks follow earnings per share. Over the long term, the correlation between earnings growth and share price performance is as high as 98 percent. Everything else is noise. Macro fears, geopolitical tensions, quarterly results that fall short by a fraction — in the long run, they hardly matter. What counts is how much a company earns and how those earnings develop over time.
Janus Henderson: Fixed Income Q4 Strategy Videos
Watch our latest Fixed Income strategy update videos.
Janus Henderson: Global Perspectives: ABS may provide attractive opportunities
In this episode, Portfolio Managers John Kerschner and Nick Childs discuss the asset-backed securities (ABS) market, identifying key risks and opportunities for investors seeking to navigate the evolving fixed income landscape.
‘Ghost GDP’ masks lurking AI risk for labor market and inflation
Does AI-driven 'Ghost GDP' mean growth is failing to translate into consumer spending?
Oil, gas prices take center stage in market reaction to Iran strikes
Oil and gas prices rose sharply on Monday as investors assessed the implications of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation, with markets focused on whether the conflict risks widening.
Global Small Caps: Unlocking value through governance engagements in Japan
In recent years we have intensified our active ownership approach with Japanese companies, aiming to boost capital efficiency, improve governance structures and enhance shareholder returns.
Iran’s oil shock puts the Teflon-market thesis to the test
Markets enter the week facing not simply another geopolitical headline, but the prospect of a structural energy repricing. After US-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader and Tehran retaliated across the region, investors are bracing for a sharp adjustment in oil and gas markets when trading resumes. The issue is no longer whether risk premia rise, but how disruptive and persistent they may become. “The implications for energy markets and commodities, especially for crude oil and LNG flows, are asymmetric and could trigger severe market reactions very soon,” said Cyril Widdershoven, a senior advisor at Blue Water Strategies.
The Blue Owl saga has become a real-time test of semi-liquid funds
When a US private credit fund closed its exit window to investors, confidence immediately came under pressure. The question is no longer just what went wrong, but whether the mechanisms underpinning these semi-liquid funds are functioning precisely as intended.
Chart of the week: the outlines of a new credit bubble
AI is not a bubble by definition. But the investment wave surrounding it is. The first hairline cracks are now clearly visible, and comparisons with the run-up to the global financial crisis are becoming hard to dismiss.
Washington is rewinding the clock on investor protection
Washington is rewinding the clock on investor protection. Under chair Paul Atkins, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has rolled back a series of rules, scaled back enforcement and curtailed shareholder rights. According to former senior counsel Benjamin Schiffrin, who spent nearly two decades at the agency, the regulator is now siding more with Wall Street than with investors.