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Prediction markets prove accurate enough to help investors, German study finds

Academic researchers in Europe and the United States are finding that prices on Polymarket, a fast-growing online prediction market, can track real-world outcomes with surprising accuracy. The findings suggest such platforms could become a useful tool for professional investors.

Why independence matters in asset management: Maxime Carmignac on consolidation, open architecture and culture

The development that some large banks in Europe are closing their doors to open architecture and internalising asset management is good for their margins in the short term but could create a long-term problem. That is what UK CEO Maxime Carmignac of Carmignac said. “Asset management is a different profession, with a different culture and dynamics. We are already seeing that this is starting to work against some banks.”

The limits of Trump

Donald Trump likes to present himself as a leader guided by instinct and personal conviction. International treaties, diplomatic traditions, and established norms are, in his view, merely suggestions that he can ignore at will. This attitude lies at the heart of his political identity: America first, and whatever Trump believes is good for America is what will happen.

AI accelerates markets, not volatility

As a growing part of the financial community questions whether artificial intelligence has created a bubble, Fabiana Fedeli takes a different view. The CIO for Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability at M&G Investments argues that AI is not the source of a fundamental market imbalance, but rather acts as an accelerator of price adjustments in an environment that has become extremely fast-moving.

Silver breaks with tradition as structural shortages take hold

The silver price appears to be breaking with its traditional pattern. Where the metal has historically followed gold with a delay, silver is now moving more independently and at a faster pace. According to market participants, the recent rally is less a reaction to geopolitical tensions than the result of structural changes in the balance between supply and demand.