The world is in a state of constant chaos: political instability in Europe, Trump back in the White House, ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and a China struggling with economic recovery. In these turbulent times, making predictions that truly surprise has become increasingly difficult. Yet, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions once again provide a fascinating glimpse into the minds of scenario planners.
Saxo’s annual provocative forecasts reflect a broader practice adopted by many banks and professional investors: scenario planning as a tool to stress-test portfolios against extreme risks. Saxo’s macro strategist John Hardy emphasizes that these predictions are not traditional forecasts.
“There are enormous questions about how major trends will shape the future—whether it’s technology, U.S. policy under Trump 2.0, or the transition from fossil fuels to electrification,” Hardy said in an interview.
“These are not forecasts or high-probability scenarios, but they highlight events that could happen and deserve serious consideration. The goal is to spark thought and discussion about these trends and the risks or opportunities they present.”
From oil to AI
The list of predictions for this year is wide-ranging, touching on themes that could significantly disrupt markets, from the dissolution of OPEC to a tax on energy-intensive data centers supporting artificial intelligence. Saxo, for instance, anticipates a further decline in oil’s dominance, driven by the rise of electric vehicles.
However, this prediction stands in stark contrast to last year’s. In 2023, Saxo predicted oil prices would peak at 150 dollars per barrel. In reality, prices now hover around 70 dollars and peaked at no more than 87 dollars. This year, Saxo takes an even bolder step: predicting the collapse of OPEC.
“The peak in oil demand is coming. Will it be next year? Or 2026?” asks Hardy. “OPEC members will need to secure long-term contracts while they still can. The cartel’s cohesion could collapse under the pressure of declining demand and increasing competition.”
Data center tax
Another striking prediction involves a “data center tax,” as governments grapple with the soaring energy demands of artificial intelligence. Hardy explains that the rapidly growing electricity needs of AI, particularly in regions reliant on renewable energy, could place immense pressure on power grids.
“AI requires a stable, high-quality power supply, but renewable energy is highly unpredictable,” said Hardy. “There could be sharp price spikes during peak hours, which would trickle down to household electricity bills. Governments will likely face pressure to regulate or tax this demand.”
For investors, this prediction highlights the hidden costs of AI’s expansion. Infrastructure and tech companies could face stricter regulations and rising energy costs as governments attempt to balance economic growth with environmental priorities.
3D-printed human heart
Another example is the prediction of a 3D-printed human heart. While the commercial viability of this technology may still be years away, its inclusion points to the disruptive potential of bioprinting in healthcare and venture capital.
“The goal isn’t to suggest there’s a realistic chance of a 3D-printed heart in the near term,” says Hardy. “But who would have thought we’d reach a point where parts of the human body—starting with skin, likely the first application—are actively being explored for bioprinting? Skin replacement is just the beginning and could eventually lead to full organ replacement.”
“Imagine parts of your body being replaced with tissue made from your own DNA. It’s an incredible development that could extend lifespans, especially for those born after us who’ve preserved their cord blood or stem cells. This kind of innovation is truly astounding.”
This medical trend requires breakthroughs in the biotechnology and 3D printing sectors. Most companies in these industries are still in the start-up phase, but Saxo anticipates a wave of IPOs in the coming years.
Saxo’s Outrageous Predictions for 2025
1. Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar
Trump’s administration imposes tariffs, reshapes trade, and slashes deficits with Elon Musk’s Doge coin. Global dollar supply dwindles, spiking crypto markets to 10 trillion dollars, while reshoring boosts US exporters.
2. Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple
Nvidia’s revolutionary Blackwell chip delivers 25x AI efficiency, fueling record profitability. Shares soar past 250 dollars before regulatory scrutiny tempers its monopoly-driven dominance amid surging demand for AI innovation.
3. China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate economy
China launches a seven trillion dollars fiscal stimulus, injecting e-CNY directly into consumers› pockets and promoting reduced work hours to boost consumption, family formation, and economic growth. Commodities rise.
4. First bio-printed human heart ushers in new era of longevity
Scientists achieve a groundbreaking feat: bio-printing a fully functional human heart using advanced 3D technology. Growth expectations soar for biotech and 3D printing, driving innovation and reshaping healthcare.
5. Electrification boom ends Opec
Collapsing demand for oil as gasoline and diesel forces Opec’s disintegration. Members abandon quotas, max out production, and drive oil prices down, benefiting industries like airlines and logistics while reshaping energy markets.
6. US imposes AI data center tax as power prices run wild
US power prices surge as tech giants secure baseload electricity for AI data centers, sparking public outrage. Governments respond with taxes on data centers, fueling power infrastructure investment and higher natural gas prices.
7. A natural disaster bankrupts a large insurance company
A catastrophic US storm triggers unprecedented insurance claims, far surpassing Hurricane Katrina. Underprepared insurers face collapse, sparking industry-wide panic and bailout talks, while Berkshire Hathaway emerges stronger, gaining market share.
8. Pound erases post-Brexit discounts versus the Euro
Sterling strengthens past 1.27 versus the euro, erasing its post-Brexit discount. A pro-growth UK fiscal agenda contrasts with Eurozone struggles, boosting domestic investment, sterling, and FTSE 100 performance.
Further reading on Investment Officer Luxembourg:
- Reality often outpaced fantasy in Saxo’s outlook calls
- Saxo’s crazy predictions for 2022
- Saxo Bank’s 10 outrageous predictions for 2021