Federal Reserve

European investors are eyeing the rapid price shifts in the US bond market, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts. While the rise in US government bond prices has been enticing, seasoned investors are now questioning how long this rally can last.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent announcement that U.S. interest rates will hold steady at 5.25% to 5.5% has sparked a debate among investment professionals about what would be best for asset owners: a «soft landing» or a full-blown recession?

Selon une étude, les longues périodes pendant lesquelles la Fed a maintenu les taux d’intérêt à un niveau stable ont été marquées par des rendements exceptionnellement bons, tant pour les actions que pour les obligations. Les investisseurs s’attendent à une évolution similaire cette année, même si tout ne se passera probablement pas sans heurts.

While interest rates in the bond market are rising uninhibitedly, the stock market may be in a dead-cat bounce, or a «sucker-rally». Some market specialists do not trust the rally and declare equities «a lost cause». In terms of allocations, the traditional appeal of a 60-40 portfolio appears to make a comeback now that the ‘earnings yield spread’ between stocks and bonds is narrowing.

The latest ‘chart of the week’ shows a difference between market expectations of what the Federal Reserve will do and what the central bank wants, a fascinating development, says True Insights’ Jeroen Blokland. The Fed as well as the European Central Bank will update their views on interest rates later this week.

Forget all those bars of gold that are heavily guarded because they are incredibly valuable. Credibility is the most valuable asset for a central bank. It is the monetary version of what goodwill is to a company. In this respect, the ECB could learn a lot from the Fed. An analysis.

The more credible a central bank is, the more effective its policy is. With high credibility, a central bank needs to do less actual work to achieve the desired result: bludgeoning inflation. More words, and less action, so to say.

With economic growth slowing down in all three of the world’s major economies, investors are best advised to opt for the geographical region with the least messy outlook, leading international economist Mohammed El-Erian has told a Nordic conference. “The cleanest dirty shirt is in the US.”

Unlike the Federal Reserve itself, investors believe the “Fed pivot” moment is approaching rapidly. Forward swaps point to a peak in interest rates of up to five per cent. Some market experts however are “uncomfortable” with the view and don’t exclude a level of six percent of the US benchmark.

The Federal Reserve last night raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.25-4.5 percent, rounding off a cumulative tightening of 425 basis points this year.

The European Central Bank on Thursday is poised to increase interest rates again. Economists and fixed income specialists expect a hike of 50 basis points - following two consecutive 75 point hikes - with markets watching for official signals that point towards further rate hikes next year.