Han Dieperink

The S&P500 is virtually unchanged this year, but beneath the surface the US equity market is moving more than it has in years. More than one fifth of all stocks in the index have already risen or fallen by more than 20 percent this year. The gainers are clearly in the majority: about two out of three. Yet you do not see that reflected in the index itself. How is that possible?

The election result in Japan was historic. For the first time since World War II, one party secured a two-thirds majority in parliament. Prime Minister Takaichi can now implement her plans without the compromises that have so often paralyzed Japanese politics. The stock markets responded positively: prices rose and records were broken. This is the first effect of the coming reflation on Japan’s financial markets.

America has the most crypto-friendly president ever. Donald Trump has created a bitcoin reserve for the government. He has released crypto criminals. Americans can now include crypto in their pensions. And he halted Biden’s strict crypto policy. If bitcoin cannot rise now, when can it?

Jerome Powell is stepping down as chair of the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh will succeed him. For investors, the big question is whether US central bank policy will really change. The short answer: yes, possibly. And the reason is AI.

Donald Trump likes to present himself as a leader guided by instinct and personal conviction. International treaties, diplomatic traditions, and established norms are, in his view, merely suggestions that he can ignore at will. This attitude lies at the heart of his political identity: America first, and whatever Trump believes is good for America is what will happen.

The first trading day of 2026 left no room for doubt. While many investors were still recovering from the champagne, chip stocks surged worldwide and set new records.

Something strange is going on. The US economy is growing, but no jobs are being added. In fact, unemployment is rising to 4.6 percent. Normally, it works like this: first jobs are created, then wages rise, then spending increases. Now that order has been reversed. People are spending money they have not earned.

The Cambrian explosion of AI-driven life forms has begun. Under the collective label of artificial intelligence, an ecosystem is emerging that is evolving faster than many people realize. Its impact is still often underestimated, both in scale and in speed, but it will permanently shape the second half of the twenty twenties as a structural force.

Last week, China’s trade surplus crossed the threshold of one thousand billion dollar for the first time. In the first eleven months of 2025 alone, China exported one trillion dollar more than it imported. It is a milestone that both illustrates the export strength of Chinese industry and exposes the deep problems in China’s growth model, while further fueling calls for protectionism in the rest of the world.

The traditional 60/40 portfolio is dead, long live the 60/40 portfolio.