IO asset manager survey: structural risks are rising, but risk appetite holds up

For the second time, the editorial team of Investment Officer conducted a year-end survey among large asset managers operating in Europe. The aim was to assess their outlooks for 2026 based on a standardized set of proprietary questions. The common thread is that risks have become structural, without leading to a flight from risk assets.

In summary, the following stood out:

1. Equities dominate: despite geopolitical tensions, equity allocation remains by far the preferred choice for 2026.
2. Emerging markets (EM) are the largest consensus pick, mainly due to low valuations and a potentially weaker dollar.
3. US equities remain necessary in portfolios, but are no longer the place where asset managers want to add extra risk.
4. Europe is frequently mentioned as a comeback region, not because it performed poorly in 2025, but because valuations lag the US while the policy and fiscal backdrop is improving.
5. Germany plays a key role in the European recovery narrative through the relaxation of the debt brake.
6. Several asset managers expect a rebound in Japan in 2026, driven by reforms, governance improvements and a weak yen.
7. AI functions as a connecting theme across all five articles: as an earnings accelerator, a buffer during market shocks, a sector-wide productivity driver, and a geopolitical flashpoint.
8. The resilience of markets in 2025 serves for asset managers as evidence that structural risks do not automatically require a defensive positioning.
9. Geopolitics is therefore no longer noise, but a structural allocation factor.
10. The rivalry between the United States and China goes beyond trade, affecting technology, commodities and capital flows.
11. Asset managers warn that high government debt increasingly dictates monetary policy, making long-dated bonds particularly vulnerable.
12. Long-term government bonds are frequently discouraged due to inflation and debt risks. Corporate bonds also look vulnerable, given extremely tight spreads late in the cycle.
13. Diversification takes on a new meaning in 2026: investors are not only diversifying across assets, but also across regions, blocs and scenarios.

Below you will find our five articles based on the responses of 28 asset managers, together accounting for an estimated 54 trillion dollars in assets under management.