Max Severijns

Many investors are on the fence about re-entering the badly battered bond market when the bottom may be near. The smart ones will want to enter the market well before interest rates hit their peak, says Michael Gitlin, partner and head of fixed income at Capital Group.

US stocks appear to have entered the ‘final stages’ of a bear market. But the final low for the S&P 500 is seen around the 3000 to 3400 point level, which would represent a drop of another 16 per cent from last week’s close. Current conditions are such that financial accidents can easily happen, some market watchers warn.

Panic appears to rule the world’s most liquid financial market, the foreign exchange market. The Bank of England had to announce emergency measures on Wednesday to stop the pound’s dump. Behind the panic is a systemic crisis: a dramatic fall in European currencies against the dollar, an analysis shows.

Not only the pound, but also the euro has been failing against the dollar for more than a year. Falling currencies are eating into investors’ returns and specialists believe that their devaluation against the dollar will not bottom out for the time being.

“Capital markets are in complete disarray and we are detecting structural changes,” said Ewout van Schaick, head of multi assets at NN Investment Partners, talking to InvestmentOfficer.nl in a podcast interview. 

The era of negative interest rates on government bonds is over, but the moment when government bonds will again generate both portfolio protection and returns is still far away. Especially in Europe, the situation is tough. The ECB has its hands tied. The need to save Italy means Eurozone interest rates can only rise so much. “Make no mistake about it: the next six months won’t be pretty.”

Last quarter, the Shanghai A-share Index did 11 per cent better than the S&P 500 and 15 per cent better than the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Still, sentiment on China is gloomy. The negativity is fuelled by large amounts of bad news. 

With stock market indicators showing rapid growth, what is happening? Is the bear market ending or is this just a regular bear market rally that will soon end? Some way we might be facing a recovery, others say that it’s just hopeless optimism.

The largest economy in the eurozone is weakening. The German Dax index has been hit unprecedentedly hard in recent months. The discount that has emerged on equities presents a prime opportunity according to specialists. “The economic situation in Germany is lousy, to say the least, but the stock market looks good.”

An energy crisis is imminent in Germany. The renowned trade surplus became a trade deficit in June. Inflation is dire and consumer confidence is at an all-time low.

Europe’s energy supply is under severe pressure, and the 8.9% inflation rate in the eurozone seems to be cushioned only by sharp increases in interest rates, which could push the European economy into recession. Is Europe still the continent you want to be in as an investor?

Although the European economy had a relatively good second quarter, with economic volumes up 0.7% on the first, concerns for the second half of the year remain high.

Financial markets expect a further increase of 140 basis points in European Central Bank interest rates by the end of the year, suggesting a steady path of increases of half a percent per six-weekly meeting. Worsening economic conditions in the coming months could however lead to an early shortening of the tightening cycle. It is balancing on a thin rope, investors and strategists tell Investment Officer.