US Treasuries gaining appeal
US 10-year yields rose above 2.0 percent last week. The last time 10-year yields were above 2.0 percent was in July 2019. With skyrocketing inflation and the Fed’s upcoming rate hikes in mind, that probably does not sound so crazy. Yet our model estimate for US 10-year yields points in the opposite direction.
We estimate US 10-year yields using the following factors:
- US unemployment rate
Making most of it while you sleep
After its famous ARK vs. Berkshire Hathaway chart, the Financial Times recently published another strong chart. It shows that the overnight return, the return between the closing and opening of the stock exchange, is many times higher than the return realised during regular stock exchange hours.
How supply chain disruption threatens the stock rally
Contrary to what many central bankers and economists expect, “supply chain disruptions” are still ubiquitous. Indeed, a quick glance at delivery times, inventories and freight costs shows that supply chain disruptions are getting worse rather than less. That could put an end, at least temporarily, to the equity rally, has written Jeroen Blokland, multi-asset specialist and founder of the research platform True Insights, in his first weekly contribution to Fondsnieuws, Investment Officer Luxembourg’s sister publication.