bonds

Believe it or not, Donald Trump’s return to the White House might just be good news for Europe’s fixed income markets. While U.S. investors brace for renewed protectionism and inflation risks, Europe’s debt landscape is showing signs of resilience—possibly even appeal.

With the United States facing another daunting budget deficit of seven percent of GDP this year, such alarming depictions of debt are proliferating.

The spread on French government bonds has peaked again, showing that financial markets are on edge ahead of Sunday’s elections. Until they conclude later in July, many investors are favouring other European government bonds. “Any reminder of the European debt crisis is a red flag for international investors,” one analyst remarked.

High yield bonds are positioning themselves cautiously in the spotlight as recession fears recede and credit quality improves. While junk bonds perform best during periods of robust economic growth, a region that’s closely flirting with a recession is seen as having the most potential.

Index products have seen significant inflows at the expense of active products, reflecting increasing interest from both institutional and retail investors. The outlook for Europe remains positive in the coming years. Bond ETFs in particular still have strong growth ahead of them.

Last year was a tough one for financial markets, and the ETF segment was not left behind as assets under management - at the global level - fell for the first time since 2011. 

European investors this year found safety in short-term US debt and the dollar. This week’s Top 5 by Morningstar takes a look at the performance of US government bond funds in the year to date.

The ISM Manufacturing Index is not only an important indicator of future growth, but is also highly correlated with market returns. What many investors overlook: it’s not just correlated with equity returns, but also bonds.

By using indicators that say something about the direction of the ISM Manufacturing Index to define different ISM scenarios, you can derive implied returns for each asset class.

Many investors are on the fence about re-entering the badly battered bond market when the bottom may be near. The smart ones will want to enter the market well before interest rates hit their peak, says Michael Gitlin, partner and head of fixed income at Capital Group.

This will probably be the worst but also the best year for bonds ever. Rising interest rates and credit spreads are causing hefty price losses. Inflation is a bond investor’s worst enemy and it is skyrocketing. The fact that interest rates and credit spreads are rising fast is good for bond investors in the long run. Panic and volatility always create opportunities.

Europe’s biggest fund manager, Amundi, is telling investors that it is time to get back into the bond market. And it believes that reports of the death of the 60-40 portfolio are greatly exaggerated. That theory merely has spent time in the freezer, said Vincent Mortier, Amundi’s chief investment officer.

“Bond is back, and not only on screen,” Mortier jokingly told journalists in a media call on Tuesday.