Investing

I am captivated by a recent chart from Bloomberg that illustrates the anticipated movements in interest rates by central banks globally. What particularly catches my attention is Japan, represented in yellow on the far right of the chart.

The latest quarterly report from Efama, the European Fund and Asset Management Association, shows that the global investment fund industry witnessed a slight decrease in net assets, dropping by 0.2 percent in euro terms to 64.33 trillion euro in the third quarter of 2023. This trend was mirrored in US dollar terms with a 2.7 percent decline. 

The imminent decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on a series of U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is stirring up the Bitcoin investment community. While many investors are caught up in a typical “buy the rumour, sell the fact” scenario, it’s crucial to consider the long-term implications on Bitcoin, guided by what I term the “7% principle”.

Higher interest rates, the pace at which central banks will cut rates, a possible recession and regulations on sustainability and digitalisation. In their expectations for 2024, Investment Officer experts and columnists name these as the key themes. 

In the line-up below, our columnists and knowledge experts tell what challenges they expect within their field for the coming year. Which immediately answers the question about which topics you can expect contributions from them in 2024.

In 2024, the investment landscape will evolve with fixed income markets rebounding, equity markets diversifying beyond the ‘Magnificent Seven’, and private markets favouring operationally robust mid-market firms.

Investment Officer has previewed 2024 with specific articles looking at fixed income, at equities and at private markets:

Next year, private market investors should focus on mid-market companies with low debt and potential for operational improvement, says Dirkjan Schuiten, head of private markets at ABN Amro. This approach contrasts with the less reliable strategies of financial engineering and betting on rising valuations, which are unlikely to yield desired returns in the near future.

Fixed income markets are moving out of the doldrums encouraged by the medium-term prospect of declining interest rates. Despite persistent macro-economic challenges, a new golden age could loom for bonds, one CIO argues. Investment officers and fixed income strategists that spoke to Investment Officer agree, but all underline the need to be picky.

Kristina Hooper, chief strategist at Invesco, understands that the endless debating about interest rates seems a bit excessive, “but back in the day, investors had to guess what was going to happen to interest rates by looking at the thickness of Alan Greenspan’s briefcase”.

The dominance of the “Magnificent Seven” will diminish in 2024, leading to a more broadly oriented equity market next year. This is the expectation of equity experts. “There will no longer be seven next year,” they predict. On other themes, opinions are divided.

A major hazard for investors is becoming too entrenched in their beliefs, especially when evidence suggests a different narrative. While the idea of a “soft landing” may seem overly optimistic, it’s undeniable that some bastions of investment remain resilient, as evidenced by sustained corporate profits.

Mismatch