Investing

China celebrates New Year on Sunday, marking the start of the year of the rabbit, a symbol for longevity, peace, prosperity and hope in Chinese culture. The year could provide some interesting investment opportunities, China specialists at Comgest and Mainfirst Asset Management said in separate notes to investors.

Luxembourg’s fund industry has high hopes for Eltif 2.0, the revised European regime for long-term investment funds that is set to be approved next month by the European Parliament. Thanks to the updated rules, products like private funds can be targeted directly at retail investors in all 30 countries in the European Economic Area with one single AIFM passport.

Not Davos, but Tokyo has the markets’ attention this week. The Bank of Japan earlier today defied market expectations by keeping its Yield Curve Control interest rate policy unchanged, at least for now. Markets question however how long the BoJ can sustain this now that global government bond yields are rising. Japan could be sitting on Pandora’s box.

With economic growth slowing down in all three of the world’s major economies, investors are best advised to opt for the geographical region with the least messy outlook, leading international economist Mohammed El-Erian has told a Nordic conference. “The cleanest dirty shirt is in the US.”

The oh-so-popular post-war 60/40 portfolio is worn out - passé. So say many asset allocation strategists. The alternative is 60/40/20: equities, bonds and alternatives. Nay, says Zoltan Pozsar, strategist at Credit Suisse. The future is the 20/40/20/20 portfolio, consisting of cash, equities, bonds and commodities. He explains why in his formidable analysis War and Peace.

In the Luxembourg market for Reserved Alternative Investment Funds, Dublin-headquartered investment services firm Waystone has emerged as the biggest issuer by a landslide, analysis of 2022 data by Investment Officer Luxembourg shows. The list of most active Raif issuers also includes Carne Global - the number one issuer in previous years, One Funds and Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe.

The analysis showed that Luxembourg was home to a total of about 2125 Raifs at the end of last year after adding some 472 new funds during 2022.

Unlike the Federal Reserve itself, investors believe the “Fed pivot” moment is approaching rapidly. Forward swaps point to a peak in interest rates of up to five per cent. Some market experts however are “uncomfortable” with the view and don’t exclude a level of six percent of the US benchmark.

Secondary funds are gaining traction in Luxembourg’s private equity market. Unlike primary funds, secondary funds invest in assets that have mostly completed their investment periods. Their rising popularity suggests “there is some tension in the market as players search for liquidity or focus,” said Gregory Beltrame, partner at Arendt & Medernach. 

Two Luxembourg brand names in the alternative investments business are disappearing. Fund administration firm Pandomus and independent management company Pancura have been renamed under the single new brand of Pandoo.

Geopolitical uncertainty, rising interest rates, more stringent sustainability requirements, modernisation of the regulatory environment, democratisation of private equity, and pressure on costs and margins are expected to shape the next twelve months in the grand duchy’s financial system. Camille Thommes, Nicolas Mackel, Jerry Grbic, Stephane Pesch, Nicoletta Centofanti and others told IO what they expect in the new year.