Investing

As the European Parliament, during this month’s plenary session in Strasbourg, debated the proposed changes to the EU’s regulation for long-term investment funds, a plan also known as Eltif 2.0, Luxembourg was discussing a “lighter” special tax regime for this new type of fund that can target investors in 30 European countries under a single passport.

Stocks have continued their rebound into 2023, delivering one of the best openings to a calendar year since January 2000. Morgan Stanley however believes the gains are just another bear market bounce. 

The inverted yield curve in the US, the curious outperformance of gold, and falling demand for oil in the US are three factors that warrant particular attention, Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer , told investors this week.

As an international financial hub, Luxembourg is seen as well positioned to play a key role in talks about strengthening and financing the recovery of Ukraine’s economy once the war is over. A Luxembourg roundtable, scheduled for 22 February, will discuss Luxembourg’s potential role and seeks to create a number of expert-based working groups.  (Free to read)

Private markets, in particular those for digital infrastructure investments, continue to appeal to European institutional investors, according to a global survey among 480 institutional investors presented on Tuesday by State Street. The survey also shows that European investors are a bit more reluctant than others to invest in private equity.

Luxembourg stock exchange listed private equity firm Luxempart on Monday said it entered into an investment agreement that will give it a stake of approximately 26 percent in Kestrel Vision for about 110 million euros.

Global financial markets are entering a riskier phase where some corporate earnings could disappoint while opportunities remain in China, emerging markets and investment grade bonds, Europe’s biggest asset manager Amundi said.

In their February note to investors, Amundi’s group chief investment officer Vincent Mortier and deputy group CIO Matteo Germano spoke of a subdued earnings and economic backdrop that calls for a cautious, well-diversified approach. 

Thursday’s 50 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank came as no surprise. The ECB’s deposit rate now stands at 2.5 percent. The ECB reiterated that it intends to deliver a similar rate hike at its next meeting in March.

The ECB’s hike came one day after a 25 point increase announced by the Federal Reserve, and coincided with a 50 point raise by the Bank of England.

Private assets might have dropped significantly in value since the “good years” of 2020 and 2021, but despite a bad year in 2022, they’re still outperforming public market returns by quite a margin, explained Schroders Capital’s chief investment officer Nils Rode at his firm’s private assets 2021 outlook this week.  History shows that private assets investors could have a strong year in 2023 despite the bad overall macroeconomic conditions, he argued.

Macroeconomic pressure on Luxembourg’s real estate sector has translated into a lower volume of property sales, which is hurting the businesses of those who sell real estate properties – real estate agents. They are now screaming bloody murder. 

“The market is suffering,” said Jean-Paul Scheuren of the Luxembourg real estate chamber, speaking of the real estate market generally. “Everybody is like on hold, on hold, and also the demand is on hold.”

Eurozone interest rates will rise further in the near future as evidence grows that inflation has become entrenched, leaving the European Central Bank no option but to continue to hike its policy rates. At Ethenea, ECB watchers believe official deposit rates could more than double from current levels.