Investing

The oh-so-popular post-war 60/40 portfolio is worn out - passé. So say many asset allocation strategists. The alternative is 60/40/20: equities, bonds and alternatives. Nay, says Zoltan Pozsar, strategist at Credit Suisse. The future is the 20/40/20/20 portfolio, consisting of cash, equities, bonds and commodities. He explains why in his formidable analysis War and Peace.

In the Luxembourg market for Reserved Alternative Investment Funds, Dublin-headquartered investment services firm Waystone has emerged as the biggest issuer by a landslide, analysis of 2022 data by Investment Officer Luxembourg shows. The list of most active Raif issuers also includes Carne Global - the number one issuer in previous years, One Funds and Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe.

The analysis showed that Luxembourg was home to a total of about 2125 Raifs at the end of last year after adding some 472 new funds during 2022.

Unlike the Federal Reserve itself, investors believe the “Fed pivot” moment is approaching rapidly. Forward swaps point to a peak in interest rates of up to five per cent. Some market experts however are “uncomfortable” with the view and don’t exclude a level of six percent of the US benchmark.

Secondary funds are gaining traction in Luxembourg’s private equity market. Unlike primary funds, secondary funds invest in assets that have mostly completed their investment periods. Their rising popularity suggests “there is some tension in the market as players search for liquidity or focus,” said Gregory Beltrame, partner at Arendt & Medernach. 

Two Luxembourg brand names in the alternative investments business are disappearing. Fund administration firm Pandomus and independent management company Pancura have been renamed under the single new brand of Pandoo.

Geopolitical uncertainty, rising interest rates, more stringent sustainability requirements, modernisation of the regulatory environment, democratisation of private equity, and pressure on costs and margins are expected to shape the next twelve months in the grand duchy’s financial system. Camille Thommes, Nicolas Mackel, Jerry Grbic, Stephane Pesch, Nicoletta Centofanti and others told IO what they expect in the new year.

Individual autocrats in Russia and China as well as at a number of top global technology firms pose a severe risk to geopolitical and economic stability in our world this year, the Eurasia Group says in its report on top risks for 2023. This global context will lead to volatility in emerging markets this year.

Uncertainty regarding monetary policy, inflation, and the pace at which the climate crisis is worsening are known factors that will determine the shape of investment charts in 2023. On top of that, the risk exists that an unexpected event will leave its mark. Investment Officer’s experts and columnists are clear in their expectations for this year. “The list of tough questions for 2023 is long.”

Infrastructure has become one of the topics we pay frequent attention to. It’s remarkable how often it comes up. But of you think about it, the global need for infrastructure investment, the attention paid by the political classes, the importance of the asset for the pension manager have combined to make this once dusty-seeming topic seem of the highest importance. The fact that it has the allure of being inflation-resistant has brought additional attention in these troubled times.

Luxembourg’s international status as a hub for alternative investments and private equity this year was reinforced as institutional investors sought stability as global equity and bond markets were taking a beating by surging inflation and rising interest rates.