Investing

The largest economy in the eurozone is weakening. The German Dax index has been hit unprecedentedly hard in recent months. The discount that has emerged on equities presents a prime opportunity according to specialists. “The economic situation in Germany is lousy, to say the least, but the stock market looks good.”

An energy crisis is imminent in Germany. The renowned trade surplus became a trade deficit in June. Inflation is dire and consumer confidence is at an all-time low.

For at least 15 years, risk profiles, used by banks or independent risk managers to assign each client an investment portfolio, have been the subject of discussion. The current trend change from falling to rising interest rates further complicates client communication. The reason: a static risk profile and dynamic markets are hardly compatible. An analysis. 

With a recession looming in Europe, investors again are on the lookout for suitable safe havens. Ethenea’s investment strategist Andrea Siviero, who manages the firm’s 60-million-euro Hesper Fund - Global Solutions together with Federico Frischknecht, believes the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are well placed to take up this role, as the Fund has1a position in December 2023 Euribor futures that anticipates the ECB won’t be able to raise rates next year as much as currently discounted by the market.

European bond funds experienced a fifth straight month of net outflows in May as inflation continued to rise and markets anticipated tightening of monetary policy in Europe and the United States, according to data on 29 countries posted by the European Fund and Asset Management Association, Efama. 

More lenient EU regulations are about to make it possible for providers to offer private investment funds to private investors. Private products such as semi-liquid funds and European Long Term Investment Funds, or Eltifs - which can be marketed also to retail clients under a European passport, often via Luxembourg - will gradually change the private equity landscape. “The split that the market currently finds itself in will then be resolved,” said Wim Nagler, head of institutional clients at Schroders.

Manchester-based distressed debt trader Arrow Global Limited has announced it is opening an office in Luxembourg in order to benefit from the Grand Duchy’s position as a global investment fund hub and to put in place “the optimum infrastructure” to support investment strategies for its debt funds.

Pressed by persistently high inflation in the eurozone, the European Central Bank on Thursday may opt to double up on the 25 basis point rate hike that it has flagged already. Financial markets are increasingly bracing themselves for such a major increase, citing among others the euro’s recent weakness against the dollar.

As US companies revise their earnings forecasts en masse and fears of recession-induced defaults increase, some investors feel it’s a good moment to get into high yield corporate debt. The key question: what will be the nature of the upcoming recession?

“A rare opportunity to get into high yield,” noted bond strategist David Furey of State Street Global Advisors in a market review last week. “A fantastic buying opportunity for US high yield,” said Dutch investment advisory firm Candoris. 

Semiconductors everywhere you look, the end of cash, the development of digital entertainment utilities and technology-driven warp speed healthcare innovation will be some of the trends, already visible today, that will define our lives in 2030, according to a long-term lookahead presentation by Capital Group. The overall message in was that yes, the world has changed, but there will still be plenty of opportunity, much of it related to technological development.

In public markets, a well-known proposition is that at the moment that everyone steps in, the red flag should be raised: probably the best time is over. Investors in private markets, where effects are generally felt later, do not worry so much. Besides, there is not much you can do as a private investor.