Investing

2021 was one of the worst calendar years for emerging markets in the last decade, according to senior manager research analyst Ronald van Genderen of Morningstar, in his contribution for this week. Only 2013 saw a (narrowly) bigger loss. That year, the market was hit by concerns about the so-called “taper tantrum”. The situation today is similar, with increasing concerns about rising inflation that may trigger interest rate actions by Western central banks.

Private banks in Luxembourg have seen their assets under management double since the 2007-8 financial crisis, according to a survey conducted by KPMG and the Luxembourg Bankers’ Association (ABBL). The report observed that growth at Luxembourg’s private banks in 2020 outpaced growth at their counterparts in Switzerland.

Private banks held 508 billion euro in assets at the end of 2020, up 9 percent from 466 billion euro a year earlier and more than double the 225 billion euro held at the end of 2008.

In the medium term, the green transition may further fuel inflationary risks, according to ECB board member Isabel Schnabel in an interview with the Financial Times last weekend. Rising energy prices, she said, may require the ECB to do more to hold back increases. She urged portfolios to increase their investments into real assets. 

The two oil crises of the 1970s are notorious. In 1973, the oil price went from $3 a barrel to $12 a barrel in two weeks, and in 1979 the oil price rose from $12 a barrel to $33 a barrel. OPEC’s power was great in the 1970s. OPEC’s market share is now rising. This year, moreover, demand for oil will exceed supply for the first time.

Last year, oil prices already rose by 50 per cent. A new oil crisis is in the offing. 

So goes January, so goes the year, it is sometimes said. If so, Mr Market has decided that the Covid-19 pandemic is behind us. This has investment implications: the long duration narrative will fade into the background, and “real economy” stocks will outperform again.

The conglomerate of conglomerates, Berkshire Hathaway, has been staging a strong rally in recent weeks. Warren Buffett’s vehicle has risen sharply on the back of its substantial position in Apple, which recently passed the $3 trillion mark. But there is more to it.

An equity portfolio can be approached in various ways. There is a division between domestic shares and foreign shares, or a division based on market capitalisation with the three categories largecaps, midcaps and smallcaps. And there are distributions based on sectors, factors and, of course, regions.

Each classification has its advantages, but also disadvantages. This year, investors should look for shares that do not fit into any of these boxes.

The nice thing about the investment profession is that creativity is more important than striving for perfection. Striving for a perfect world runs the risk of chasing the market. By selecting investments in which all the good news is discounted, a portfolio is created that structurally lags behind the market.

Energy sector equities are having a good year. In recent years, however, investors in the sector have had a rough time of it. With the rise of sustainable investing and the greater awareness that the world needs to move away from fossil fuels to put an end to climate change, investments in companies that are active in the field of fossil fuels are under a magnifying glass.

2021 was the third year in a row where sustainable investors outperformed non-sustainable investors. For a long time, there has been a debate as to whether sustainable investment comes at the expense of returns or actually generates additional returns. Many studies and meta-studies later, the cautious conclusion is that it probably does not cost a return and may even be good for the return.

“Inflation is currently above 10 per cent,” said Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management. The billionaire investor fears that if inflation remains at this level, “there will be major consequences for most of us.”

With non-financial media writing about the increasing devaluation of money, inflation awareness is starting to permeate all parts of society. But according to Bill Ackman, the reality is much grimmer than it seems.