Investing

Despite a wider uptake of alternative energy, fossil fuels like natural gas, oil and coal are here to stay for the next decades and the MSCI Global Energy Composite index will outperform both renewable energy stocks and the broad equity market over the next year, JP Morgan Asset Management said in its 2022 Annual Energy Paper.

It was one of the worst stock market quarters in a long time, but Warren Buffett did not stare like a rabbit in the headlights. He seized the correction to buy more than 41 billion dollars worth of promising and punished shares. Result: his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway outperformed the S&P 500. 

In the first quarter, investors sold off their Chinese shares en masse. Foreign investors who had burned their money in Russia were afraid that a similar scenario would unfold in China, potentially leaving them with stranded assets. But there is a silver lining here, Louis-Vincent Gave, co-founder and director of research company GaveKal, told Investment Officer. “A Taiwan invasion is less likely now than it was a few months ago.”

Hedge funds with a macro or multi-strategy focus were among the best performing funds in the first quarter, shielding investors from geopolitical turmoil, high inflation numbers and shifting monetary policies, according to Preqin, a privately-held London-based investment data company that provides financial data and information on the alternative assets market.

The firm said that, in a historical context, first quarter performance was “certainly disappointing but hedge funds managed to guard investors against major pullbacks.” 

The International Monetary Fund has warned of a more permanent fragmentation of the world economy into geopolitical blocks with distinct technology standards, cross-border payment systems, and reserve currencies. The fund has lowered its growth outlook for the global economy and warned that inflation in many countries is threatening to undermine future growth. “Inflation has become a clear and present danger in many countries,” the IMF said.

Rising interest rates and continuing tension surrounding the Ukraine conflict have brought the issuance of high-yield corporate bonds in Europe to a virtual standstill. “The size and speed of the current interest rate increase is causing companies to stop going public and the market to virtually dry up,” said one specialist.

The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds topped 2.8 percent on Tuesday, the highest point since 2018. The 10-year yield thus technically breaks the downward trend line that dominated the government bond market for the last four decades. “This is a harbinger of misery.”

While the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates aggressively in the coming months, the European Central Bank, fearing the impact on Europe’s weaker economies, will remain reluctant to quickly boost Eurozone interest rates to mitigate the effects of rising prices. The ECB is due to provide a new monetary policy update on Thursday at its next six-week press conference.

When it comes to the prospect of a recession, and a possible prolonged period of stagflation, the jury is still out, even in Europe. Although in agreement on a deteriorating economic outlook, major asset managers such as BLI, Pictet and JP Morgan hold diverging views on what’s next. For investors, corporate earnings are now seen as the next waypoint.

During the brief period between the release of most Covid-19 measures and the start of the war in Ukraine, inflation was the order of the day. And although we currently live in a more complex and visibly less global world, inflation still seems to be the number one issue for financial markets.