Investing

Investors have always worried about what rising bond yields mean for markets. But today, such fears appear unfounded, argues Daniele Antonucci, Chief Economist at Quintet Private Bank.

Bonds are among the best performing asset classes of the past 40 years. But it’s not unlikely the next 40 years will show a radically different picture. 2021 and 2022 could even yield negative returns as above-average economic growth and rising inflation could push bond yields up from their record-low levels.

The table below shows that bonds have done great over the past four decades. However, returns have fallen steadily from 222.7% in the period 1980-1989, to 109.9% in 1990-1999, to 84.7% in 2000-2009 and to 44.5% in the ten years from 2010-2019.

Dividends paid by European companies on an underlying basis have sunk by more than 28% in 2020 to €141 billion, according to the Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index. This is the lowest figure since 2009.

Expensive US growth stocks need not suffer from reflation and rising interest rates. On the contrary, they will thrive thanks to their pricing power, says Ton Wijsman, senior portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein and former director at W.P. Stewart.

Carmignac says all lights are green for an investment in emerging markets. The weakening dollar and the rapid recovery of economies mean increasing your allocation to EM equities and bonds is a must.

When Tesla’s annual report was released on Monday, it stated that the firm had bought $1.5 billion in bitcoin and that it wants to expand this position. This seems a strange move for an electric car producer, but Elon Musk regularly tweets about bitcoin and the digital currency dogecoin.

The UK equity market has been underperforming ever since the Brexit year of 2016. Now that Brexit is finally behind us, is this the moment for the asset class to shine again?

Strong inflows into clean energy ETFs have pushed valuations of the various subsectors higher. To mitigate downside risks, a broader perspective on the sustainability theme is needed. Semiconductor manufacturers in particular are interesting, says Thiemo Lang, manager of the RobecoSAM Smart Energy Fund.

The share prices of European banks have been rising in recent months, and their rally has further to go. In the long term though, structural underperformance will continue, believes Jonathan Fearon (pictured), investment director European Equities at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

The reflation trade will accelerate further under a Biden presidency, according to what Philippe Gijsels (photo), chief strategist at BNP Paribas Fortis. Commodities, EM equities, small caps and cyclicals all offer exposure to it. But that does not mean one should dump growth stocks.