Asset Allocation

Panic over banks and falling treasury yields have gold prices flirting with an all-time high again. In the short term, a quicker turn by the Federal Reserve may be the deciding factor, but the precious metal’s real success lies deeper. “Gold deserves a structural role in the portfolio.”

Gold prices briefly climbed past the 2,006 dollar per troy ounce level last week. With that, the August 2020 all-time high of 2,075 per troy ounce is getting closer.

Green bonds are becoming mature and are a good diversification in a portfolio because they provide above-average transparency, according to Julien Bras (photo), bond manager at Allianz Global Investors. 

Bras argued that green bonds are an interesting way to get more diversification in bond portfolios. “The main argument for me to include green bonds in portfolio is their transparency compared to traditional bonds.”

Rabobank said it took advantage of the sharp fall in prices of deeply subordinated bonds of European banks to buy additional cocos. BlueBay Asset Management is also betting on the risky bank bonds after Credit Suisse coco shareholders saw their money go up in smoke.

After a formidable start for the capital markets in 2023, followed by the “SVB correction”, a consensus on the sense and nonsense of the 60/40 formula still remains to be found. Investment Officer takes stock again.

In a turbulent year like 2022, investors needed refuge, which was almost nowhere to find. Investments in oil showed outstanding performance, as one of the few areas in the financial markets. And then there were precious metals. Not all metals performed equally well though, and positive returns were mostly measured in euros.

Dutch pension funds, a major category of investors in global markets and clients to many Luxembourg real estate funds, last year suffered losses on their real estate investments after many years of rising values. Their investments in real estate funds, however,  delivered positive numbers.

While interest rates in the bond market are rising uninhibitedly, the stock market may be in a dead-cat bounce, or a “sucker-rally”. Some market specialists do not trust the rally and declare equities “a lost cause”. In terms of allocations, the traditional appeal of a 60-40 portfolio appears to make a comeback now that the ‘earnings yield spread’ between stocks and bonds is narrowing.

The Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation marks its second anniversary next month. Although it was quickly adopted as a sustainability label, its actual purpose was to provide a framework for communicating the extent to which sustainability plays a role within an investment fund. Adjusted rules that took effect in January 2023 caused a stir in the sustainable fund landscape.

Although professional investors - on average - are still considerably underweight equities, there is one category they are massively allocating to. Never before has the allocation jump in emerging markets equities been so large in three months. EM is hot.

Index products have seen significant inflows at the expense of active products, reflecting increasing interest from both institutional and retail investors. The outlook for Europe remains positive in the coming years. Bond ETFs in particular still have strong growth ahead of them.

Last year was a tough one for financial markets, and the ETF segment was not left behind as assets under management - at the global level - fell for the first time since 2011.