Asset Allocation

When it comes to the prospect of a recession, and a possible prolonged period of stagflation, the jury is still out, even in Europe. Although in agreement on a deteriorating economic outlook, major asset managers such as BLI, Pictet and JP Morgan hold diverging views on what’s next. For investors, corporate earnings are now seen as the next waypoint.

The first quarter of 2022 was one of the toughest in decades for investors with a neutrally balanced portfolio, writes Bloomberg on the basis of its own data. The S&P 500 fell by 4.9 percent, US treasuries lost 5.6 percent and investment grade even fell by 7.8 percent. 

Japanese shares were hot in the 1980s, but the bubble has deflated mercilessly in the decades that followed. The high point that was reached in 1989 was never reached again. Especially funds in value shares seem to have fallen victim to the disinterest of investors in recent years. Now Japanese value stocks are hitting back.

Japanese value stocks in particular performed relatively well in 2021 and have continued to strengthen in the first two months of this year. The 1980s marked the heyday of the Japanese stock market.

The performance gap between value and growth is still significant since the beginning of the year, but growth is starting to catch up. With the Fed on a rate hike course, and with the possibility of a shallow recession in Europe and the US, growth stocks may paradoxically start to outperform again.

European emerging-market bond funds pose limited contagion risk to the broader financial system in light of the conflict in Ukraine, rating agency Fitch said on Monday. The funds have low exposure to Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, which should limit the risk of a large increase in redemptions. 

It is a good moment for investors to green their bond portfolios. The asset class is considered attractive after the rise in interest rates in recent months and the increased risk premiums stemming from the Ukraine war, Johann Plé, senior fund manager fixed income at AXA Investment Managers, told InvestmentOfficer. 

An abrupt and disorderly transition to a low carbon economy risks disrupting the financial system as a sudden implementation of climate change mitigation policies can increase transition risks, a new European Central Bank study said on Friday.

The ECB’s researchers raised the prospect of “severe banking system losses” if no additional policy action is taken. These losses could reach “up to 40 percent more” compared to a baseline scenario where no policy action is taken.

While US companies are generally praised for their quality, strong competitive advantages and high growth prospects, European equities are significantly less popular. Although most fund managers seem to have less faith in European equities, they are generally popular with value and dividend investors.

Expectations are growing that oil prices will rise further. The most recent rise was prompted by suggestions that the West would boycott Russian oil and gas, a boycott that materialised with US and UK decisions on Wednesday. 

Gold is playing its traditional role in the flight to safety and rose above 2000 dollars per troy ounce this week. There was disappointment last year when the gold price reacted poorly to sharply rising inflation, but Ukraine has pushed up the price. Gold thrives best at times of  chaos, but it is not a good hedge against inflation.