Asset Allocation

Investors in emerging markets should completely ignore the 60 per cent worst performing companies when defining their investment universe. These companies bring extra risk, without rewarding you for it. In addition, investing in China is very different at the moment: great opportunities are better left aside in some cases. 

While the price of gas shot through the roof last week, it seems that a real energy crisis can be avoided in the short term now that Vladimir Putin is going to supply extra gas. Nevertheless, the unexpected turbulence in the energy market is reason for ING to reassess its investment strategies. It is a perfect storm.

The question is whether the illiquidity of private markets is still an issue if the market becomes more volatile again. Especially when you realise that liquid markets can also become illiquid.

With the upcoming COP26 Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, the pressure on pension funds to green their investment portfolios increases. At the same time, the debate on fossil investments is intensifying. But what is the best roadmap: exclusion or engagement? Pension fund PME chooses option 1, while asset manager PGIM explicitly favours option 2. 

PME: disinvestment logical

Chahine Capital’s macroeconomic analysis shows that European equities and value are now the most attractive in this cycle. The European risk premium is particularly high. Italian equities have strong rationing potential.

This emerged from an interview with Julien Bernier (chief investment officer) (photo) of Chahine Capital. Among other things, the Luxembourg-based manager will use macroeconomic analysis to define four distinctive pillars, namely economic momentum, monetary policy, valuation and a behavioural component. 

The search for yield is causing a rotation among institutional investors from classical investments to better yielding alternatives, such as hedge funds. Insurers such as AXA expect hundreds of billions in ultra low or negative yielding government bonds to be exchanged for other investments in the coming years.

Rolando Grandi, a fund manager with La Financière de l’Echiquier has highlighted the huge opportunities linked to the development of the space sector, with many companies expected to go public in the coming years. 

Research by French think-tank Edhec shows that ETFs that are so-called “Paris aligned” take the climate score into account for no more than 12% of the factors underlying stock selection. Climate scores, at best, play second fiddle.

The 10-year and 30-year US yields are pushing towards the top of their trend channels. These interest rates are all-important for the further evolution of long-duration assets. 2 per cent on the 10-year segment seems to be a breaking point. A barbell strategy between value and growth may offer a solution.

With listed infrastructure companies passing inflation directly on to their customers, investors can use them as a hedge against rising inflation, according Thomas van der Meij of Van Lanschot Kempen, a Dutch wealth management firm active in the Benelux region.

“Communication towers, toll roads and, to a lesser extent, airports perform well in a high-inflation environment. Meanwhile, US railways and energy transmission companies are benefiting from high commodity prices,” he explained.