Asset Allocation

Juan Nevado, manager of the M&G (Lux) Dynamic Allocation Fund, is convinced time has come for a major rotation towards value stocks. He has aligned his tactically managed portfolio as such, while almost completely avoided US tech.

Quintet private bank is counting on an accelerated global recovery in the spring and is advising its clients to increase risk in the short term. The bank is overweight equities, especially those from the US and emerging markets.

With the recovery of the global economy that has begun and the support measures of central banks and governments, the climate is favourable for investments in risk assets, according to Quintet’s Bill Street.

As a very challenging 2020 has drawn to a close, everyone is looking to the future: when can I get the vaccine? When will life return to normal? When will I be able to go to the pub with my friends again?

But for investors, it’s of course important to not only look to the short term, but also to think much further out. Forget what 2021 will look like - what will 2030 look like?

The dividend yield is often the first thing a manager of a dividend fund looks at when analysing a stock. But not Ludwig Palm, manager of Flossbach von Storch – Dividend  fund. His main focus is whether a company is able to increase its dividend in the long term.

Low interest rates, moderate inflation and a strong recovery in corporate profits. For the time being, the environment for equities remains extremely favourable, according to James Ashley, Head of International Market Strategy at Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM).

Investors should focus on cyclical equities, which benefit from a strong economic recovery. At the same time, they should use options and own some gold and Treasuries to protect their portfolio, according to Andrew Harmstone, head of Global Balanced Risk Control Strategy at Morgan Stanley.

The impending economic recovery may well mean the big tech stocks will cede their market leadership for the time being. But the FAMAG stocks remain attractive on a long-term basis, says Julian Cook, portfolio specialist for US equities at T. Rowe Price. Apart from one though.

A car with two accelerators and no brakes. This is how Philippe Gijsels (pictured right), chief strategist at BNP Paribas Fortis, describes current monetary and fiscal policies. Consequently, he expects 2021 will be a good year for risky assets.

The US Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Index has already risen by more than 30% since its low in March. But the big rally is now over, with the remaining opportunities now primarily in reopening trades and rising stars, according to Walter Kilcullen, manager of the Legg Mason Western Asset US High Yield Fund.

The world economy is set for strong growth next year, helped by a broad roll-out of the coronavirus vaccine which will restore confidence. But there is a downside to this development: it will be followed by a strong rise in inflation – of up to 5%.

Simon Ward (pictured), Janus Henderson’s chief economist, gives this forecast to clients in his macroeconomic outlook. He expects a long-term period of substantially higher inflation from 2021 onwards.