Asset Allocation

The share prices of European banks have been rising in recent months, and their rally has further to go. In the long term though, structural underperformance will continue, believes Jonathan Fearon (pictured), investment director European Equities at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

The reflation trade will accelerate further under a Biden presidency, according to what Philippe Gijsels (photo), chief strategist at BNP Paribas Fortis. Commodities, EM equities, small caps and cyclicals all offer exposure to it. But that does not mean one should dump growth stocks.

Despite its recent slide, the US dollar is still overvalued. In time, the greenback could go much lower. This has positive implications for European, Japanese and EM equities, but is a bad prospect for Wall Street, according to Michael Devereux, multi-asset fund manager at Schroders.

In the aftermath of the surprise Democrat win in the Georgia Senate run-offs earlier this month, 10-year Treasury yield surged above the 1%-mark. It seemed investors were anticipating a large fiscal stimulus by the incoming Biden administration. But Nick Maroutsos, head of global bonds at Janus Henderson Investors, does not believe rates will go up much further from here.

Thematic ETFs saw record inflows of €9.5 billion last year, as totale assets in the category almost tripled to €22.7 billion, according to Morningstar’s European Thematic Roundup 2020.

The low-yield environment in the developed world has also lowered Western investors’ return expectations from emerging market debt. As a consequence, projects requiring joint financing by the government and private investors now meet the latter’s return requirements, says Invesco’s Wim Vandenhoeck.

Pictet-Human wants to invest in private services in the fields of education, leisure and healthcare. The new fund, which could be considered a ‘human counterpart’ of the asset manager’s flagship Robotics fund, invests in three themes with predictable future growth that should exceed 10% over the next three years.

Juan Nevado, manager of the M&G (Lux) Dynamic Allocation Fund, is convinced time has come for a major rotation towards value stocks. He has aligned his tactically managed portfolio as such, while almost completely avoided US tech.

Quintet private bank is counting on an accelerated global recovery in the spring and is advising its clients to increase risk in the short term. The bank is overweight equities, especially those from the US and emerging markets.

With the recovery of the global economy that has begun and the support measures of central banks and governments, the climate is favourable for investments in risk assets, according to Quintet’s Bill Street.

As a very challenging 2020 has drawn to a close, everyone is looking to the future: when can I get the vaccine? When will life return to normal? When will I be able to go to the pub with my friends again?

But for investors, it’s of course important to not only look to the short term, but also to think much further out. Forget what 2021 will look like - what will 2030 look like?