Asset Allocation

This will probably be the worst but also the best year for bonds ever. Rising interest rates and credit spreads are causing hefty price losses. Inflation is a bond investor’s worst enemy and it is skyrocketing. The fact that interest rates and credit spreads are rising fast is good for bond investors in the long run. Panic and volatility always create opportunities.

It has been a challenging period so far for both equities and bonds in 2022. The era of loose monetary policy is over as inflation races around the world, leaving policymakers with no choice but to raise interest rates and scale back bond buying programmes.

Central bank interest rate hikes seems to have had their desired effect, with signs pointing to the end of the very high inflation of late, but, according to three chief investment officers at M&G Investments, the world’s economy isn’t out of the doldrums yet, especially because of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.

Europe’s biggest fund manager, Amundi, is telling investors that it is time to get back into the bond market. And it believes that reports of the death of the 60-40 portfolio are greatly exaggerated. That theory merely has spent time in the freezer, said Vincent Mortier, Amundi’s chief investment officer.

“Bond is back, and not only on screen,” Mortier jokingly told journalists in a media call on Tuesday.

The era of negative interest rates on government bonds is over, but the moment when government bonds will again generate both portfolio protection and returns is still far away. Especially in Europe, the situation is tough. The ECB has its hands tied. The need to save Italy means Eurozone interest rates can only rise so much. “Make no mistake about it: the next six months won’t be pretty.”

Factor investing, an investment approach that involves targeting specific drivers of return across asset classes, is attracting increasing interest from investors. Factors such as value, size and momentum have a long history in the investment world and have been extensively empirically researched and documented in the academic literature. Although there are different variations for these factors as well, the factor quality is perhaps the most debated, both in academia and in practice.

Low-risk stocks do better in the long run than high-risk stocks. For the record, this story equates risk with movement or, in stock market jargon, volatility. In itself, this is not the correct definition of risk. The flip side of risk in the form of volatility is opportunity.

Pauline Grange (Columbia Threadneedle) emphasises the opportunities that currently exist in the market to take advantage of European efforts to improve energy autonomy in Europe. 

The erratic first half of 2022, which sent leading stock market indices into bear market territory, has clearly left its mark on the fund universe. Fund houses active in the bond markets saw a general outflow of investor money, and although on balance equity funds attracted investor interest, large differences could be seen at the category level. Active funds did not appeal to investors, while the least sustainable investment funds were also out of favour.

Europe’s energy supply is under severe pressure, and the 8.9% inflation rate in the eurozone seems to be cushioned only by sharp increases in interest rates, which could push the European economy into recession. Is Europe still the continent you want to be in as an investor?

Although the European economy had a relatively good second quarter, with economic volumes up 0.7% on the first, concerns for the second half of the year remain high.