Asset Allocation

The war between the United States, Israel and Iran is casting a shadow over a crucial week for central banks. The US Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday, followed a day later by the European Central Bank.

Listed private markets managers are under pressure in recent weeks as investors question the resilience of evergreen funds and worry about technology exposure in private credit portfolios. Shares across the sector have slid after several retail-focused vehicles limited withdrawals, raising fresh doubts about whether funds that promise periodic liquidity can withstand market stress. Partners Group says those fears are misplaced.

Investors are increasingly focused on what the war with Iran could mean for the global economy. The surge in oil prices is reviving fears of stagflation, as higher energy costs threaten to push inflation higher while economic growth comes under pressure.

A large share of the bond markets currently offers yields that look attractive, above the magical threshold of 4 percent. But the war in the Middle East is fueling fears that inflation could move in that direction as well, which would erode much of the real return.

Artificial intelligence has unsettled software stocks for months. Now it is testing European credit markets and exposing fault lines in parts of private credit that were sold to investors as stable and uncorrelated. “If the software issue remains isolated, markets can cope. If it bleeds into the real economy, then all bets are off.”

Rising budget deficits have caused government bonds to lose much of their appeal as a safe haven for investors. High-quality corporate bonds have subsequently moved up the ranks. Has the rally run its course? Samuel Gruen, fixed income specialist at Rothschild & Co Asset Management, examined the European market from a historical perspective.

Sustainable funds recorded their first full year of net outflows in 2025, after investors withdrew 84 billion dollars from ESG strategies worldwide, according to Morningstar data. While the headline figure suggests a sharp break with previous years, Morningstar said it overstates the extent to which investors are abandoning sustainable investing.

The silver price appears to be breaking with its traditional pattern. Where the metal has historically followed gold with a delay, silver is now moving more independently and at a faster pace. According to market participants, the recent rally is less a reaction to geopolitical tensions than the result of structural changes in the balance between supply and demand.

Donald Trump’s return to the Davos stage on Wednesday has sharpened investor focus on Europe’s exposure to a world in which geopolitics is once again shaping trade, security and capital allocation. “Everything has changed,” said Sabrina Khanniche, senior economist at Pictet.

Talk of the need to lower exposure to U.S. assets grew louder this week, but asset managers in Europe are not abandoning the country. Recent market moves, they argue, do not justify a strategic shift away from the U.S., with equities rebounding toward record highs after signs of progress on Greenland at talks in Davos.