Chart of the week: questions about inflation

Fed Chair Powell has made no secret of it: he and his colleagues aim to bring interest rates back to the elusive, yet undefined, neutral rate. To reinforce this narrative, the FOMC members filled their forecasts with a significant number of expected rate cuts. However, the question now arises: does inflation actually permit this?

A recession after the elections

Growing signals suggest the Republicans could clinch a victory in today’s elections, a scenario generally regarded as optimal for investors. A Republican Sweep would mean lower taxes, deregulation, and increased government spending. However, the gap between the Republicans and Democrats remains too narrow to confidently predict a winner, raising the likelihood of a contentious, potentially escalating dispute over the results.