Opinion

Growing signals suggest the Republicans could clinch a victory in today’s elections, a scenario generally regarded as optimal for investors. A Republican Sweep would mean lower taxes, deregulation, and increased government spending. However, the gap between the Republicans and Democrats remains too narrow to confidently predict a winner, raising the likelihood of a contentious, potentially escalating dispute over the results.

In our increasingly polarised society, political messages are more frequently being ‘hidden’ within economic analyses. With the US presidential election approaching, the number of these messages is growing, with the truth often bending slightly to accommodate them.

The governing council of the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates again in October. The bank expects annual inflation in 2026 to reach 1.9 percent, which would align with the ECB’s target of 2 percent annual price increases.

US inflation has fallen back to 2.4 per cent, not far from the Federal Reserve’s target. In Europe, the inflation levels of the largest economies are already well below the 2 per cent target of the Bank of England and the ECB, just as we saw in the years before Covid.

The cold, wet, and miserable weather does nothing to dampen Jason ‘IPO’ Lee’s spirits as he arrives at Findel after a grueling journey from Hong Kong. He has chosen Luxembourg as a launchpad for the European arm of his AI fund.

Following the Great Financial Crisis, the western monetary madness led to years of outperformance for US equities. Now that central banks are lowering interest rates and the global economy seems to be picking up, emerging markets are becoming attractive again.

I was brought up in an investment era where bond investors proudly positioned themselves as “smart money” investors, in contrast to the “dumb money” crowd that invested in equity markets. But it’s becoming increasingly clear that these bond aficionados may need to relinquish their self-awarded title.

Last weekend marked the second anniversary of the current bull market in equities. Since hitting its low point on October 12, 2022, the MSCI All Countries World Index has surged about 50 percent, the S&P 500 has risen by around 75 percent, and the Nasdaq has doubled. The driving force behind this impressive rally? The so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks, which have nearly tripled in value over the same period.

Soaring oil prices, solid job growth, and a seemingly unhurried Powell have forced markets to significantly scale back expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, Powell and his colleagues will be in for a lot of trouble if they don’t cut rates at each of the upcoming meetings.

The regulations surrounding the European sustainable finance package seem to have entered somewhat calmer waters for now. Nevertheless, the topic of transition financing and transition investing remains relevant, especially as there is a need for clear frameworks and definitions.