Opinion

The chart making waves on social media isn’t getting attention without reason. It suggests that the real turmoil in the US labour market kicks in only after the yield curve has been inverted for over a year. Investors might be celebrating a soft landing prematurely.

In 1973, during Yom Kippur, Israel found itself under siege from countries including Syria, Egypt, Morocco, Iraq, Algeria, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. This conflict led to the first oil crisis, causing oil prices to triple in a short span, marking a significant shift in Western economic growth post-World War II.

Thursday’s ADP employment growth figure modestly stood out with a meagre addition of 89,000, but the real stunner last week was the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index. Contrary to expectations and amidst surging energy prices, it plummeted last month to a level of 43.8, nearly five points lower than the previous month.

Urban Angehrn, the former chief executive of the Swiss financial regulator, FINMA, recently stepped down, citing the toll on his health from “permanent stress levels,” months after orchestrating the rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS. However, it is not only people in high-profile jobs who experience burnout.

A few years ago, a younger version of myself also experienced burnout.

In a rapidly shifting economic landscape, leverage presents a distinct challenge. The private debt market emerges as a beacon of adaptability, with expertise and tailored solutions becoming crucial determinants of success, writes Yvonne Narin, senior manager risk controlling at Universal Investment Luxembourg.

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Just returned from your sun-soaked holiday? Luxembourg’s asset scene is heating up, and not just due to the weather. Dive into our latest analysis, covering everything from the CSSF’s game-changing valuation order to shifting ETF trends. This column is your essential back-to-work read!

Long-term inflation expectations have risen this year.

The Luxembourg legislator has done it again: with Bill 8183 (the “Bill”), which entered into force on 28 July 2023 after passing the Luxembourg Parliament, the Luxembourg funds toolbox has been carefully modernised, write Pinsent Masons’ Tom Loonen, Lous Vervuurt and Jan Saalfrank in their latest contribution as Investment Officer knowledge partner.

At the time of writing, markets are still pricing in just under a 60 per cent chance that the ECB will raise interest rates one more time sometime in the coming months. And although Lagarde has only recently turned to wage growth as an argument for further tightening, there are plenty of reasons to at least pause.