Opinion

There has been a clear shift from public markets to private markets. Private markets are no longer an opportunistic satellite, but are now the core of the investment portfolio. 

The workings of financial markets never cease to amaze from time to time. Especially when they decide to systematically deny the elephant in the room. Equity investors are often blamed for this behaviour, but high-yield investors can also have some of it at the moment. 

If there is anything consensus after the demise of Silicon Valley Bank, it is surely that the outflow of bank deposits is leading to tighter lending requirements. Not least because loan-to-deposit ratios have increased.

It was when the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg signed the customs union that a geographical area at the heart of Europe was defined. The aim was to promote economic integration and cooperation between the three member states. 

Since then, Benelux has been one of the most successful regional integration models, both in terms of economic growth and political stability. This success is also rooted in the creation of a solid legal framework that provides a stable and transparent business environment.

This week, the European Central Bank published its ‘Monetary developments in the euro area’ report. And with that, we finally got information on bank deposits in the euro area.

European deposits look a lot better on an aggregate level than in America. Unlike in the United States, where bank deposits are down 3 per cent from a year ago, Eurozone deposits are still growing. That means the risks of traditional bank runs are lower here.

As Investment Officer knowledge partner, Universal-Investment’s Luxembourg country head Sofia Harrschar argues that reforming the EU regulation on social security would be in the interest of Luxembourg’s financial services sector and the many thousands that it employs. The industry meanwhile, needs to adapt quickly, look across the border and develop new ways of working.

The Federal Reserve still raised interest rates by 25 basis points despite the banking woes. But not because it has high confidence that all will be well. Moreover, by not pausing once, it has again misled the market.

The Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) is working relentlessly to further build a financial system that is safe, transparent, and reliable. To achieve this goal, the supervisors of the Luxembourg financial sector collaborate closely with their peers in the EU and globally.

Powell opens the door to a 50-basis-point rate hike, interest rates shoot up and equities crash. And yet, at the time of writing, the VIX index is below 20, raising the question of whether equities are not a bit complacent.

You can probably already hear a little from my tone what my answer is going to be. Still, there is a good reason why implied volatility looks relatively low.

My column last week, titled ‘Cash is king,’ showed that both cash and bonds are again competing with equities. After years of being saddled with TINA - There Is No Alternative - there again is something for investors to choose from.

Investing is a game of relative things, at least if you do it right. Whether you have a short or long horizon, somewhere the question arises as to which asset classes are actually the most attractive. And since central banks have made it a sport since 2008 to keep inflating their balance sheets, the answer to that question was rarely, if ever, cash. Until now!

I show two charts below that show the amount of ‘yield’ for the main asset classes, adjusted for duration (interest rate sensitivity) on the one hand and volatility on the other.