Opinion

Negative surprises put a cap on the upside potential, especially for equities. As a rule, investors react strongly to surprises, often shaped as economic data. After all, the consensus expectation should already be incorporated in the prices. 

It is therefore no coincidence that there are indices that mathematically determine the degree of surprises. A good example are the Citi Economic Surprise indices. 

Problems with energy supplies, a perfect storm of geopolitical uncertainty and, in the autumn, probably another Covid flare-up… Investors in European equities are not having it easy, and yet not everything is doom and gloom.

At first glance, there is little reason to be optimistic about Europe and European equities by extension. The enormously weak euro bears witness to the malaise on the Old Continent. Optimists will argue that exporters will benefit, but then the energy supply must be secured, and it is not.

For the first time since 2002, the euro trades at parity with the dollar. In the summer of 2008, one euro was worth as much as 1.6 dollars. But with the eurozone on the front line in the war in Ukraine and the ECB simultaneously cautious about raising interest rates because of fragmentation risks, the euro seems to have only one way to go and that is down. The rapid decline of the euro is a harbinger of the next euro crisis. 

The ISM Manufacturing Index, also known as the purchasing managers’ index, fell more than expected in June. The index dropped to 53 where a reading of 54.5 was expected. This was not really a surprise, as the regional sentiment indicators had already fallen significantly. 

In fact, they pointed to an ISM Manufacturing of only just above 50.

Fifteen years ago, I bought my first iPhone in Denver, Colorado. Not entirely coincidentally, I was on holiday in the US. I did not have to queue up, but walked into the Apple store in the afternoon. The iPhones with 4 and 8 Gb flash memory were sold out, but the one with 16 Gb was still for sale.

In Luxembourg’s financial sector, ‘the new Ucits’ is an informal but widely recognised label that stands for innovation and promising change. It refers to the success of its 1980s investment legislation that offered European passports to Ucits investments funds, sparking a multi-decade boom in the financial sector, turning Luxembourg into Europe’s leading hub for investment funds and replacing the steel industry as the country’s main economic driver.

German consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level ever, it became clear last week. Never before have German consumers been so negative about the economy and their financial prospects. And Germany is not alone.

Far from it. In the United States, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands too, consumer confidence recently reached an all-time low. The extremely negative sentiment among consumers is a global phenomenon caused by another global phenomenon: extremely high inflation.

More economic growth means more population growth, according to Thomas Malthus. The demographer and preacher believed that food production is linear and population growth exponential, and as such are the limits to growth. An overpopulated society leads to famines. Epidemics and wars were insufficient to control the growing population, according to Malthus.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast for the second quarter stands at exactly 0 percent. So no growth expected. Something economists certainly do not take into account.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a growth forecast based solely on published macro data during the quarter. This differs from the forecasts of most economists, who usually only give one number that may or may not be revised.

The Federal Reserve is doing something else than what it says it is doing. At last week’s FOMC meeting, Fed chief Jerome Powell said that “the committee is not trying to cause a recession”. Yet it is clear that the Fed is directly linking a recession to lower inflation risks and that the Fed does want to fight inflation.