Investing

In an uncertain geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, Iris van de Looij has recently taken charge of investment teams at InsingerGilissen, Quintet’s private bank in the Netherlands. The bank is currently in a slightly defensive mode, but sees scope to add some more risk to its portfolio again. 

What an extraordinary month the first month of this year proved to be for the European Central Bank (ECB), indeed! To begin, this month marked the 25th anniversary of the euro’s inception. To commemorate this milestone, major newspapers across eurozone countries published an article by ECB President Christine Lagarde, among others, just before the year-end.

Markets can often be inscrutable, as seen in December’s US inflation data, which showed a rise in headline inflation to 3.4 percent, unexpectedly surpassing the forecast of 3.2 percent.

Shares have been muddling along since, in a reaction seemingly consistent with these figures. Yet, this contradicts the trends observed in recent months. 

A fresh approach to investment research that Paris-based Amundi, Europe’s only asset manager ranked in the global Top 10, adopted two years ago appears to be paying off by effectively guiding Chief Investment Officers and clients in maintaining investment discipline. “Having a disciplined way to look at the market is helpful,” Monica Defend, the head of the Amundi Research Institute, told Investment Officer in this IO Talks podcast interview.

In the private equity (PE) market, a significant shift is occurring as Limited Partners (LPs) increasingly demand the release of funds from older investments before considering new commitments. This change comes amidst a backdrop of unprecedented levels of “dry powder” - uninvested capital within PE firms.

The European Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) industry has witnessed a remarkable surge in 2023, with assets under management reaching an unprecedented 1,563.5 billion euro. This growth was bolstered by significant estimated net inflows of 155.6 billion euro, according to LSEG Lipper data.

I am captivated by a recent chart from Bloomberg that illustrates the anticipated movements in interest rates by central banks globally. What particularly catches my attention is Japan, represented in yellow on the far right of the chart.

The latest quarterly report from Efama, the European Fund and Asset Management Association, shows that the global investment fund industry witnessed a slight decrease in net assets, dropping by 0.2 percent in euro terms to 64.33 trillion euro in the third quarter of 2023. This trend was mirrored in US dollar terms with a 2.7 percent decline. 

The imminent decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on a series of U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is stirring up the Bitcoin investment community. While many investors are caught up in a typical “buy the rumour, sell the fact” scenario, it’s crucial to consider the long-term implications on Bitcoin, guided by what I term the “7% principle”.

Higher interest rates, the pace at which central banks will cut rates, a possible recession and regulations on sustainability and digitalisation. In their expectations for 2024, Investment Officer experts and columnists name these as the key themes. 

In the line-up below, our columnists and knowledge experts tell what challenges they expect within their field for the coming year. Which immediately answers the question about which topics you can expect contributions from them in 2024.