Investing

In 2024, the investment landscape will evolve with fixed income markets rebounding, equity markets diversifying beyond the ‘Magnificent Seven’, and private markets favouring operationally robust mid-market firms.

Investment Officer has previewed 2024 with specific articles looking at fixed income, at equities and at private markets:

Next year, private market investors should focus on mid-market companies with low debt and potential for operational improvement, says Dirkjan Schuiten, head of private markets at ABN Amro. This approach contrasts with the less reliable strategies of financial engineering and betting on rising valuations, which are unlikely to yield desired returns in the near future.

Fixed income markets are moving out of the doldrums encouraged by the medium-term prospect of declining interest rates. Despite persistent macro-economic challenges, a new golden age could loom for bonds, one CIO argues. Investment officers and fixed income strategists that spoke to Investment Officer agree, but all underline the need to be picky.

Kristina Hooper, chief strategist at Invesco, understands that the endless debating about interest rates seems a bit excessive, “but back in the day, investors had to guess what was going to happen to interest rates by looking at the thickness of Alan Greenspan’s briefcase”.

The dominance of the “Magnificent Seven” will diminish in 2024, leading to a more broadly oriented equity market next year. This is the expectation of equity experts. “There will no longer be seven next year,” they predict. On other themes, opinions are divided.

A major hazard for investors is becoming too entrenched in their beliefs, especially when evidence suggests a different narrative. While the idea of a “soft landing” may seem overly optimistic, it’s undeniable that some bastions of investment remain resilient, as evidenced by sustained corporate profits.

Mismatch

Luxembourg-headquartered asset manager Candriam on Wednesday announced the launch of a new alternative investments platform as a response to growing demand for diverse alternative investment solutions in today’s market environment.

In a world grappling with economic fragmentation, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures, chief investment officers at Europe’s three largest asset managers – Amundi, DWS, and Schroders – see 2024 as a year poised for cautious optimism amid ongoing economic uncertainty. 

Ucits and Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) experienced mixed fortunes during the third quarter, according to the latest statisstics reported by Brussels-based European fund sector trade association Efama. Net assets of these investment funds dipped to 19.7 trillion euro, down 0.6 percent from the second quarter, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.

Market expectations of central bank interest rate cuts in 2024 are reasonable, according to Gilles Moëc, the Axa group chief economist and Axa IM head of research, who presented Axa’s outlook for next year in Luxembourg this week. He painted a relatively rosy picture for the US and, to a lesser extent, stagnating Europe, pointing to evidence that inflation is finally under control and that political troubles are not yet certain.