Investing

It was a huge shock. The 37.2 percent increase in German producer prices, or PPI, for July that the Statistisches Bundesamt announced last week. Not only was this the biggest price increase ever, it was also more than five percentage points higher than the consensus expected.

Moreover, this number came before reports of the 50 percent increase in German electricity prices so far in August. And so the question arises, should we be getting ready for a German inflation, or CPI, of over 10 percent?

In the last month, we have seen a sharp recovery in the stock market that most analysts (including myself) found surprising. Let us briefly go over the reasons for this boom. We see a number of them.

Last quarter, the Shanghai A-share Index did 11 per cent better than the S&P 500 and 15 per cent better than the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Still, sentiment on China is gloomy. The negativity is fuelled by large amounts of bad news. 

Small and medium enterprises are seen as the backbone of the net zero approach to the climate. But the vast majority of them lack the financing to implement their environmental, social, and governance ( ESG) programmes. A New York City based start-up named Marco Polo Exchange (MPX) is rolling out its POLO marketplace to help at least 150,000 SMEs overcome these challenges. 

The largest economy in the eurozone is weakening. The German Dax index has been hit unprecedentedly hard in recent months. The discount that has emerged on equities presents a prime opportunity according to specialists. “The economic situation in Germany is lousy, to say the least, but the stock market looks good.”

An energy crisis is imminent in Germany. The renowned trade surplus became a trade deficit in June. Inflation is dire and consumer confidence is at an all-time low.

For at least 15 years, risk profiles, used by banks or independent risk managers to assign each client an investment portfolio, have been the subject of discussion. The current trend change from falling to rising interest rates further complicates client communication. The reason: a static risk profile and dynamic markets are hardly compatible. An analysis. 

With a recession looming in Europe, investors again are on the lookout for suitable safe havens. Ethenea’s investment strategist Andrea Siviero, who manages the firm’s 60-million-euro Hesper Fund - Global Solutions together with Federico Frischknecht, believes the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are well placed to take up this role, as the Fund has1a position in December 2023 Euribor futures that anticipates the ECB won’t be able to raise rates next year as much as currently discounted by the market.

European bond funds experienced a fifth straight month of net outflows in May as inflation continued to rise and markets anticipated tightening of monetary policy in Europe and the United States, according to data on 29 countries posted by the European Fund and Asset Management Association, Efama. 

More lenient EU regulations are about to make it possible for providers to offer private investment funds to private investors. Private products such as semi-liquid funds and European Long Term Investment Funds, or Eltifs - which can be marketed also to retail clients under a European passport, often via Luxembourg - will gradually change the private equity landscape. “The split that the market currently finds itself in will then be resolved,” said Wim Nagler, head of institutional clients at Schroders.

Manchester-based distressed debt trader Arrow Global Limited has announced it is opening an office in Luxembourg in order to benefit from the Grand Duchy’s position as a global investment fund hub and to put in place “the optimum infrastructure” to support investment strategies for its debt funds.