Investing

It’s outlook time: asset manager are presenting their investment outlooks for 2021. Lombard Odier’s Chief Investment Officer Stéphane Monier (photo) makes it concrete by listing the institution’s 10 most important investment convictions and ideas for next year. Emerging markets get an important place, but hedging risks remains important too.

‘It’s a good time to be a bit more bullish again,’ says Jeroen Blokland, head of Robeco’s multi-asset team. Especially for equities and commodities, the asset manager is counting on double-digit returns.

The dollar will depreciate by another 10-15% over the next 3 to 5 years as the election of Joe Biden as the 46th president of the United States has drastically reduced the risk of a trade war, according to currency strategist Aaron Hurd of State Street Global Advisors.

Oil stocks have never been so cheap, but there are no signs yet that prices have bottomed out. We’re still waiting for a turn in market sentiment, say head of Automated Intelligence Equity Tjeerd van Cappelle at NN Investment Partners and NN Energy fund manager Anastasia Naymushina (photo).

The American exceptionalism will finally make way for outperformance of European and EM equities, according to JP Morgan AM’s annual long-term capital market assumptions.

In recent years it has been impossible for global equity funds to beat the index without a substantial allocation to the FAMANG stocks. But the Global Disruptive Opportunities fund of CPR AM, a boutique of Amundi, has done it. We asked fund manager Wesley Lebeau how.

What was the most important event to precede the 2008 financial crisis? Was it BNP closing its money market funds or the oil price exceeding the $100 mark? No, it was the introduction of the iPhone in 2007. And what’s the event of 2020? Surely it is Covid-19, right? No, says GaveKal’s Louis Gave, it’s the renminbi. ‘The renminbi is for the dollar what the iPhone was for Microsoft: the introduction of a parallel operating system.’

Hydrogen will play a key role in the energy transition and will therefore offer plenty of opportunities for investors. However, investors should not underestimate the diversity of the hydrogen market, according to Candriam.

The Belgian asset manager notes in its report “Hydrogen power - Enabling a virtuous decarbonisation loop” that recent government measures to highlight the potential of hydrogen as an energy source of the future have boosted the performance of certain hydrogen stocks. Some stocks have even tripled in the last twelve months.

The too-close-to-call race in the US presidential elections is the worst possible outcome for investors as it will make it difficult to implement an effective stimulus package for the economy, according to asset managers.

We should bear in mind the persisting uncertainty around the elections will not only affect financial markets, says Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. ‘Our main concern is social unrest. If this scenario unfolds, I would not be surprised to see a sell-off in more risky assets.’

Investors in Asia cannot ignore the large technology stocks, according to David Raper, manager of the Comgest Growth Asia Pacific ex Japan fund. But there are other trends investors in the region can benefit from, such as China’s planned switch to gas.