Investing

Chief economists are all waiting for the gradual lifting of lockdown measures. But otherwise, there’s little that unites them. Some are optimistic for the recovery to continue, while other believe markets are ahead of themselves.

The corona crisis is severely compromising the growth prospects of the world economy. ‘The stagnation of new infections in the main industrialised countries is good news, although concerns about certain emerging countries such as Russia, India and Brazil remain,’ says Keith Wade (pictured), chief economist at Schroders.

With a balanced performance since the beginning of 2020, Jupiter Dynamic Bond has confirmed its attractive status in the field of flexible and globally diversified bond funds. However, according to its manager, it is still too early to raise the portfolio’s risk level.

Companies with above average sustainability profile held up better during the first month of the corona crisis. The crisis thus confirms the importance of ESG integration not only from a climatic and social perspective, but also from a financial perspective.

A quarter of the 600 largest listed companies in Europe have already suspended or cancelled dividend payments for this year, according to a study by Germany’s DZ Bank. As a consequence, total dividend payouts are to fall by some €310 billion.

The bank’s analysts write that ‘an unprecedented cancellation of dividend payments is rolling over European stock markets’. They estimate 2019 payouts to fall by 23%, or €310 billion. 

The earnings season has started in Europe. But it’s a rather strange one. ‘All companies have stopped issuing guidance,’ observes Gilles Guibout, head of European shares at AXA IM. ‘That makes it difficult for bottom-up investors. So more than ever, we need a top-down approach now.’

The first US earnings results came in published last week. As always, the major banks were first, showing disappointing results and withdrawing guidance for the second quarter. The consequence: analysts look into a black hole of uncertainty. 

The real impact of the corona crisis on private equity valuations has yet to become visible, but it’s already time to look for new direct and co-investments. ‘Past experience has shown that post-crisis years are often good vintage years for new private equity investments,’ says Nils Rode (pictured), CIO of Schroder Adveq, in an interview with Investment Officer.

The Federal Reserve is by far the largest single owner of US government bonds. If the Fed continues its buy-back policy at its current pace, all US government debt will be in the hands of the central bank in less than two years’ time. That’s a good reason to sell Treasuries, says BlackRock.

A study of bear markets shows that in 70 percent of the cases stock markets fell back to a new low. In 30 percent there was a continuing recovery after a severe crash. We are probably experiencing the latter scenario now, according to BNP Paribas Fortis’ chief strategist Philippe Gijsels.

Gijsels says that the bank has been busy buying attractively priced shares and high yield bonds for clients for some time now. 

Market volatility will increase as a result of a decline in share buybacks and lower earnings growth per share, warns Goldman Sachs.

David Kostin, who leads the business bank’s portfolio strategy team, writes in a note to the bank’s clients that the 51 listed companies in the S&P that have suspended their share buyback programmes account for no less than 27% of total S&P 500 share buybacks in 2019.